536
FXUS63 KOAX 032123
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
323 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
50S AND 60S. TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
- BREEZY THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
- COOLING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH A 10-15% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST-
CENTRAL IOWA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
PRETTY QUIET AND PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM WERE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS. OTHERWISE, THE FEATURE OF NOTE WAS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM MI TO THE TX PANHANDLE,
NORTHWARD JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES, AND WESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN
WY TO THE COAST. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL START USHERING THAT BOUNDARY AND WARMER AIR NORTH,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ALSO CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES, MOST LIKELY IN THE MORNING, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER UT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. A
FEW CAMS SHOW SOME LIGHT SIMULATED RADAR RETURNS OVER THE AREA,
BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR THAT WILL NEED
TO BE OVERCOME FOR ANYTHING OF NOTE TO REACH THE SURFACE.
BY TUESDAY EVENING, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL START PUSHING INTO THE DAKOTAS
WHILE A SURFACE LOW SPINS UP ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER. THE LOW
WILL DRAG THE BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BACK IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60S. IT COULD ALSO BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE MORNING
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THOSE WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN BY
THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH PASSES THROUGH. WE'LL WARM BACK
UP INTO THE 60S AGAIN ON THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
EVENING COOLS US DOWN HEADING INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD ALSO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH EPS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MEAN WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH. OTHERWISE, GUIDANCE
FAVORS KEEPING US DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
GUIDANCE STARTS TO DIVERGE A BIT ON SATURDAY, THOUGH HINT AT
THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
ROUNDING THE BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
AND POSSIBLY INTO NE. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE
WILL BE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW, BUT
THERE ARE STILL LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
LOW. FOR EXAMPLE, BY NOON ON SATURDAY, GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST THE
SURFACE LOW COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM ND/CANADA BORDER TO THE NE/KS
BORDER WHILE EPS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL A BIT FASTER, WITH
THE LOW ANYWHERE FROM CENTRAL MO TO THE MN/ND BORDER. GIVEN THE
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW TO START
THE WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS THAT ARE FARTHER NORTH WOULD SUGGEST A
WARMER SATURDAY AND LIKELY DRY FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE FARTHER
SOUTH SOLUTIONS WOULD BE COOLER, AND PENDING EXACT TIMING, COULD
BRING SOME SNOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NE/SD BORDER. THERE IS SOME
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT WE'LL AT LEAST SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY/THROUGH, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IF WE
MANAGE TO STAY DRY. IN ADDITION, WE WILL COOL OFF ON SUNDAY
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING HIGH TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS TO
START WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND OR JUST BELOW 10 KTS. A
FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE DO HINT AT SOME MVFR CEILINGS MOVING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING (10-14Z), MOST LIKELY AT OMA AND LNK,
BUT FOR NOW ONLY SEEING ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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