694
FXUS63 KOAX 042306
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
506 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TODAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND
DROPPING WEDNESDAY HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
- TEMPERATURES COOL SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE (20-40%) FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
TODAY AND TOMORROW...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A LONGWAVE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS.
WITH FLEETING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MIXING INTO
WARMER AIR ALOFT HAVE PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, ROUGHLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE EARLY NOVEMBER AVERAGES.
TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE DAKOTAS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL RETURN HIGHS
TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES ON WEDNESDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-50S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDING WILL PIVOT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MID-60S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE MID-30S TO LOW 40S. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NE.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
A COOLING TREND WILL SET IN SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. A LEADING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA ON SATURDAY COULD BRING THE FIRST CHANCE FOR
SNOWFLAKES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND TRACKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN NE AND
WESTERN IA. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, WITH VARYING TRACKS OF THE
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY GREATLY SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST NE INTO THE MID 50S NEAR THE NE-KS
BORDER BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 20S BY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS VARYING SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
TYPE IS CONCERNED. THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS BRINGS THE LOW THROUGH
EARLIER IN THE DAY, RESULTING PRIMARILY IN RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
NE, WITH NEARLY 80% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EXCLUDING SNOW.
CONVERSELY, THE GFS FAVORS A SLIGHTLY LATER PASSAGE WITH A
SHARPER TEMPERATURE DROP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND
SUPPORTING A RAIN-TO-SNOW TRANSITION EARLY IN THE DAY. ABOUT
ONE-THIRD OF GEFS MEMBERS DEPICT SNOW, AND RECENT GEFS RUNS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION, POSSIBLY
REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-80 CORRIDOR. REGARDLESS, QPF
AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT NEAR 0.10-0.15".
POPS CURRENTLY PEAK AROUND 20-40% ACROSS EASTERN NE AND WESTERN
IA SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OUT OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE, THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
RANGE. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM, WITH LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON GUSTS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 30 MPH. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ARISE AHEAD OF THE LOW, THOUGH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED IN THE 30-40% RANGE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS
CAA DOMINATES, WITH HIGHS LIKELY PEAKING IN THE 30S ON SUNDAY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO MONDAY MORNING DIPPINGS INTO THE TEENS ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE 40S WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE
COOL PATTERN SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS MID-LEVEL RIDING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. BOTH THE CPC'S 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
OUTLOOKS FAVOR A RETURN TO ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR- TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
A FEW PASSING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN SD INTO CENTRAL NE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BEHIND
IT. WINDS THEN DIMINISH TO BELOW 12 KT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LLWS IS EXPECTED AT KOMA AND KLNK OVERNIGHT AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...MEAD
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