545
FXUS63 KOAX 052320
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
520 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
- OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SATURDAY.
- COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AND WIND CHILLS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND A
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTH IN
MOST LOCATIONS. COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION,
BRINGING A NOTICEABLE IMPACT WITH TEMPERATURES. EXPECTED HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. AN ISOLATED 60 CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER CANADA WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 92. THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA MAY HELP MITIGATE SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING, AND KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
THURSDAY, THE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY (25-35MPH) THROUGH
AROUND MID-AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL USHER IN SOME WARMER AIR, HELPING TEMPERATURES REBOUND
INTO THE LOW TO MID-60S FOR HIGHS AND THE LOW TO MID-40S FOR LOWS.
FRIDAY, THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID-60S FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
80 AND A FEW UPPER 60S FOR AREAS ALONG THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI
BORDERS. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER TROUGH,
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
850MB TEMPERATURES SHOW COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY AROUND
MID-DAY, KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.
FOR SOME LOCATIONS, THIS MAY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OCCURRING
IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME
PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH IT, BRINGING SOME LOW END (20-30%) CHANCES FOR
RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES (30-50%) ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR AREAS
ALONG THE NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER. THE CURRENT P-TYPE IS MAINLY RAIN;
HOWEVER, AREAS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA MAY HAVE THE COLDER
AIR MOVE IN SOON ENOUGH TO COOL THINGS DOWN TO WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE COMING DAYS.
THE CHILLY AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND THE GREAT PLAINS. LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID-20S SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S FOR MANY, WITH A FEW LOW 40S POSSIBLE
TOWARD OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID-
TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR LOWS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS.
MONDAY, WE SEE A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN AS NORTHERLY FLOW TRANSITIONS
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM
UP INTO MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP BY 11Z WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT OMA AND
OFK BEFORE GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS MOVE IN DURING THE DAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...CA
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