285
FXUS63 KOAX 151713
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1113 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. SLIGHTLY
COOLER, YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- 30-50% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. WHILE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN, PRIMARILY RAIN IS EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING A 20-40% CHANCE FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
TODAY...
PATCHY CLOUD COVER BLANKETED THE REGION OVERNIGHT, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S BY 2 AM. A COLD FRONT DRAPED JUST
NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS, NE TO ONAWA, IA WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER FOR FORECAST AREA TODAY, AS AN UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL DIP A LITTLE FURTHER STILL, RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S. ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE REGION, ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EFFECT THE REGION WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING, OVERSPREADING EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS FALLEN INTO
STEP WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER MODELS, TAKING THE SURFACE LOW A
SMIDGE FARTHER NORTH, INTO NORTHERN KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH
IN TURN KEEPS THE COLDER AIR JUST OFF TO OUR NORTH. THUS SNOW IS
LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY AT THIS JUNCTURE. LIGHT RAIN WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING EAST WITH THE DEPARTING LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER ON TUESDAY, IN THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THE
TIMING AND EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL TO BE SEEN, ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD COME IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO STAY NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
TAFS CONTINUE TO STAY ON TRACK THIS MORNING, WITH THE MAIN
ADDITION TO THIS ROUND BEING A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN WIND SPEEDS AT
ALL THREE SITES. GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPORADICALLY
OCCUR THROUGH 21/22Z BEFORE WEAKER WINDS MOVE IN THIS EVENING,
DROPPING FURTHER TO BELOW 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THEY DECREASE
IN SPEED, A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT, ENDING
UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW. A BANK OF
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE GLANCING THE KOMA/KOFK TERMINALS BEGINNING
12Z TOMORROW, BRINGING SLIGHTLY LOWER CLOUDS THAT SHOULD STAY
FEW/SCT AT FL030-FL080. WE'RE WATCHING FOR MODEL/FORECAST
TRENDS FOR VALLEY FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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