691
FXUS63 KOAX 160528
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT A COOLER SUNDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ROUNDING OUT THE WEEKEND.
- 30-50% CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY, ALONGSIDE BREEZY WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING A 20-40% CHANCE FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A DEEP LOW OFF THE
BAJA/CALIFORNIA COAST SPINNING UNDERNEATH RIDGING THAT SPILLS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE SURFACE, MOST OF THE PRIMARY FEATURES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, TRAILING THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY WITH A SECONDARY WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWEST IOWA WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH NEBRASKA BEFORE CONNECTING TO
A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST WYOMING. DESPITE THE NORTHERLY WINDS,
AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS LET TEMPERATURES CLIMB WILL INTO THE 60S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA WHILE FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA AND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MIGRATE FROM MONTANA TO NORTHERN IOWA AND MINNESOTA,
SLOWING WIND SPEEDS AND RAMPING UP RADIATIVE COOLING TO THE POINT
THAT WE MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING WILL
STUNT TEMPERATURES INITIALLY, WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO JUST OVER 60. WINDS SHOULD BE CALMER
TOMORROW DUE TO LIMITED MIXING, STAYING GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY AND BEYOND:
MONDAY TRIES TO BREAK UP OUR DRY WEATHER, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
CALIFORNIA LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY BEFORE DUMPING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE AT ITS DEEPEST WHEN IT INITIALLY PUSHES INTO THE
LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT RANGE, WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MONITORING THE SYSTEM'S STRUCTURE, MODEL
CONSENSUS POINTS TO IT NOT BEING VERY VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT
PASSES, WITH THE THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL LOWS BEING FARTHER
NORTH COMPARED TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS RIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIMITED COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, LEAVING US WITH NEARLY ZERO
CHANCE TO SEE SNOWFALL. RAINFALL, ON THE OTHER HAND, WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATE MONDAY MORNING IN A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTIVE REGIME,
THAT LINGERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY RAIN THAT WE DO END UP
HAVING IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY LIGHT, OWING MOSTLY TO AN
EXTREMELY DRY LAYER THAT WE WILL HAVE AT THE SURFACE.
PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS,
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS HINTING THAT MANY LOCATIONS MAY HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL MONDAY EVENING BEFORE RAINFALL TRIUMPHS OVER THE
DRYNESS. THOSE THAT DO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD ONLY SEE
LESS THAN 0.1", NOT EVEN MAKING A DENT IN OUR RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE CERTAIN THAT IT'LL BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY WE'LL BE SQUARELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEAK MONDAY WEATHER SYSTEM, WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE
A SPRINKLE OR TWO. BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES HAVE A VERY SMALL
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AT ITS TOP, BUT THE SHALLOW DEPTH IS KEEPING
ANY MENTIONS OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOK TO BE MORE ACTIVE, BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA AS A TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WEDNESDAY, BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE
FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE MAY GET LUCKY INITIALLY WITH
HAVING RAIN AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE, BUT COOLER AIR ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAS MORE AND MORE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BRINGING SNOW TO OMAHA GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME PASSING
CLOUDS AROUND 4000-8000 FT AGL. A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY SUNDAY, BUT PASSING
CLOUDS, A LITTLE WIND ALOFT, AND DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP IT VERY
PATCHY IF IT DEVELOPS (10% CHANCE). OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...CA
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