462
FXUS63 KOAX 201119
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
519 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
GRADUALLY CLEARING BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY,
BRINGING A 30-80% CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND FAR SOUTHERN IOWA.
- MILD, DRY WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE A THIRD
SYSTEM ARRIVES ON MONDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY THANKSGIVING AND PERSIST INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
TODAY...
WINDS BEGAN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT MOVED
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. RADIATIONAL COOLING ENHANCED BY CLEAR SKIES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG
EARLY LAST NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF FOG DEVELOPED BEHIND THE
FRONT. BY 2 AM THE FRONT REMAINED DRAPED FROM NELIGH, NE TO
YANKTON, SD. VISIBILITIES RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO 5 MILES WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S.
LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST
WITH THE PASSING FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
RISING SUN WILL STRUGGLE TO ERODE FOG THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY BASED ON HOW MUCH SUNLIGHT IS ALLOWED TO REACH THE
SURFACE THROUGH THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER. OVERALL, HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE
MID 30S AND LOW 40S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING TO
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS,
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND
SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA BY MID WEEK
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION JUST IN
TIME FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. WHILE THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, IF IT DRIFTS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH AS A FEW OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE, WE COULD SEE
A COUPLE SNOW FLAKES LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
DENSE FOG HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TODAY
BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH, WITH VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY
IMPROVING AFTER IT'S PASSAGE. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS IMPROVING BY AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING, FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-031>034-043>045-051>053-066>068-090>093.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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