633
FXUS63 KOAX 201922
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
122 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG REDEVELOPING TONIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO 40-80% LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
SOUTH OF I-80.
- MILD, DRY WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES (40-70%) MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY:
A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST
INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID-MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN OK WILL DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST KS BY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE ACCELERATING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MO. A WEAK BOUNDARY
WHICH MOVED INTO OUR AREA LAST NIGHT WILL SHIFT INTO KS AND MO,
WHERE IT WILL LINK WITH THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW.
A RELATIVELY MOIST, LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS PRESENT BOTH AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY CONTRIBUTED TO CONSIDERABLE FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLIER TODAY WITH VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY IMPROVING
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER REMAINS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD WITH TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED LOWER TO
ACCOUNT FOR IT'S PRESENCE. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL WORK
ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT/CONTINUATION MOST LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES (MAXIMUM POPS OF
40-80%) FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIGHT, BUT SOME 0.25-0.50" TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
KS BORDER. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
THIS WEEKEND:
ANOTHER MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO BAJA AND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY. SOME AMPLIFICATION OF A
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST WITH
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DRAWING A WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
NEXT WEEK:
THE ROCKIES SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY WITH POPS INCREASING TO 40-70%. A HIGHER-
LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED AMPLIFY ON THE IMMEDIATE
HEELS OF THE LEAD SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, SUPPORTING THE MOVEMENT OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY, 30S
AND 40S WEDNESDAY, WITH 30S EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
FOG AND LIFR CEILINGS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND LASTED
LONGER THAN EARLIER MODEL FORECASTS. HOWEVER, LATEST MODEL DATA
HAVE ADJUSTED TO THESE OBSERVATIONS, AND HAVE TRENDED IN A MUCH
MORE PESSIMISTIC DIRECTION WITH RESPECT TO VISIBILITIES, AND
MORESO, CEILING HEIGHTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KOFK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THE MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT KLNK.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 12
KT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...MEAD
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