574
FXUS63 KOAX 210927
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN LINGERING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. HIGHEST TOTALS OF 0.25-0.50" NEAR THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER.
- MILD, DRY WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES (60-80%) MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING.
- KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, AS THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SNOWFALL, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS VERY LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW SPINNING ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER WITH AN ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDING JUST
NORTH OF THE NE/KS BORDER. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED RAIN IN THE AREA. THAT
SAID, NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER IN DRY AIR, HELPING TO KEEP THE RAIN RATHER LIGHT AND
LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD SLOWLY BUT SURELY PUSH
SOUTH/DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A FEW PEEKS
OF SUNSHINE SNEAKING INTO NORTHEAST NE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. RAIN
WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, WITH TOTALS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS NEAR I-
80 TO 0.25-0.50" NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER.
FOR SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS WITH A SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE LOW TO
OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SETTING UP IN NORTHEAST NE FOR THE EVENING.
HOWEVER, THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED, WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURE, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS RIGHT BACK UP ON SUNDAY
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SO
OVERALL, A PRETTY NICE WEEKEND FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
MEANWHILE, A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF CA WILL
PUSH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME INTO LATE
SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY. ENSEMBLES GENERALLY FAVOR
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHEN 60-80% CHANCES PUSH INTO AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF LINCOLN AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THIS RAIN COULD LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING, THOUGH TOTALS LOOK PRETTY LIGHT, WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWING ONLY ABOUT A 10-20% CHANCE OF A HALF INCH.
BY TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW LOOKS
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH A FEW HINTS AT SOME WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE/PRECIP EDGING INTO NORTHEAST NE (10-15% CHANCE).
THIS WOULD LIKELY FALL AS VERY LIGHT SNOW IF WE DO GET
ANYTHING, BUT A VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH. MORE NOTABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH AND TURNS HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTO 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, THERE'S QUITE A
BIT OF MODEL SPREAD REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THANKSGIVING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE
SURFACE FRONT COULD STILL BE HANGING OUT SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR THE
AREA WHILE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES THROUGH AND GIVES
US A BAND OF SNOW. AGAIN, STILL LOTS OF SPREAD IN TIMING,
STRENGTH, AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, WITH PLENTY OF GUIDANCE
KEEPING US DRY. THAT SAID, THERE ARE ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITH AT LEAST SOME SNOW THAT THIS TIME PERIOD BEARS WATCHING,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INCREASED TRAVEL. FOR NOW, GIVING IT A
10-20% CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SOMETIME THURSDAY-SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
KOFK: VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL. CERTAINTY IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE TERMINAL HAS GONE DOWN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. LEFT A MENTION OF SOME FOG WITH LIMITED
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY FROM 09-15Z DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.
RIGHT NOW, ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO FALL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY BY 23Z.
KOMA: FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME IMPACTS TO THE REGION. THERE MAY
BE SOME REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG THROUGH AROUND 14Z.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE. THE BEST
TIMEFRAME FOR IMPACTS AT THE TERMINAL WILL BE FROM 15-20Z WITH
SOME POSSIBLE REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY AND LOW CEILINGS. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR
LEVELS.
KLNK: FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND
CONTINUES TO CAUSE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO THE TERMINAL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, FIRST BY FOG AND FOLLOWED
BY RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE
IN, FOG CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO
RAIN ARE EXPECTED. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM 11-23Z;
HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL RAINFALL WILL BE BETWEEN
14-21Z. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...ANW
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