455
FXUS63 KOAX 211139
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
539 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN LINGERING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. HIGHEST TOTALS OF 0.25-0.50" NEAR THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER.
- MILD, DRY WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES (60-80%) MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING.
- KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, AS THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SNOWFALL, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS VERY LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW SPINNING ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER WITH AN ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDING JUST
NORTH OF THE NE/KS BORDER. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED RAIN IN THE AREA. THAT
SAID, NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
USHER IN DRY AIR, HELPING TO KEEP THE RAIN RATHER LIGHT AND
LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD SLOWLY BUT SURELY PUSH
SOUTH/DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A FEW PEEKS
OF SUNSHINE SNEAKING INTO NORTHEAST NE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. RAIN
WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, WITH TOTALS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS NEAR I-
80 TO 0.25-0.50" NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER.
FOR SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS WITH A SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE LOW TO
OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SETTING UP IN NORTHEAST NE FOR THE EVENING.
HOWEVER, THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED, WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURE, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS RIGHT BACK UP ON SUNDAY
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SO
OVERALL, A PRETTY NICE WEEKEND FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
MEANWHILE, A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF CA WILL
PUSH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME INTO LATE
SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY. ENSEMBLES GENERALLY FAVOR
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHEN 60-80% CHANCES PUSH INTO AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF LINCOLN AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THIS RAIN COULD LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING, THOUGH TOTALS LOOK PRETTY LIGHT, WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWING ONLY ABOUT A 10-20% CHANCE OF A HALF INCH.
BY TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW LOOKS
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH A FEW HINTS AT SOME WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE/PRECIP EDGING INTO NORTHEAST NE (10-15% CHANCE).
THIS WOULD LIKELY FALL AS VERY LIGHT SNOW IF WE DO GET
ANYTHING, BUT A VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH. MORE NOTABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH AND TURNS HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTO 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, THERE'S QUITE A
BIT OF MODEL SPREAD REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THANKSGIVING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE
SURFACE FRONT COULD STILL BE HANGING OUT SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR THE
AREA WHILE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES THROUGH AND GIVES
US A BAND OF SNOW. AGAIN, STILL LOTS OF SPREAD IN TIMING,
STRENGTH, AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, WITH PLENTY OF GUIDANCE
KEEPING US DRY. THAT SAID, THERE ARE ENOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
WITH AT LEAST SOME SNOW THAT THIS TIME PERIOD BEARS WATCHING,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INCREASED TRAVEL. FOR NOW, GIVING IT A
10-20% CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SOMETIME THURSDAY-SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. LNK SHOULD SEE THE MOST IMPACTS, WITH THE MAIN IFR/MVFR
DECK EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF OMA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN
ADDITION, THERE IS SOME PATCHY (MOSTLY MVFR) FOG IN THE AREA,
BUT AS RAIN MOVES IN, VISIBILITY IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY IMPROVING
OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. ONCE LOWER CEILINGS EXIT THIS
AFTERNOON, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS AROUND 6000-9000 FT AGL. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS, BEFORE A
SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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