562
FXUS63 KOAX 240908
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH
MOST ACCUMULATION ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT SOME
LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO THIS EVENING.
TOTALS WILL BE UNDER 0.25" FOR MOST.
- WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH,
HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS DEPENDING HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TODAY.
- CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FROM THANKSGIVING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SNOWFALL AND TRAVEL IMPACTS.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ALONG THE
CO/KS BORDER WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN ARCING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CO
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NE AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY
TO TX. THERE WASN'T MUCH COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF 3 AM, BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE SHORTLY WHEN STRONGER ISENTROPIC
ASCENT STARTS TO PUSH IN AS THE LOW STARTS TO EDGE FARTHER
EAST. LATEST CAMS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT WE'LL SEE AN
AREA OF SHOWERY PRECIP OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 60-80% RANGE. GUIDANCE
ALSO HINTS THAT THERE COULD BE A TINY BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE WHICH COULD LEAD TO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
2, BUT CHANCES ARE PRETTY SLIM (10% OR LESS AT A GIVEN
LOCATION). THAT INITIAL AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD LARGELY EXIT TO
OUR EAST BY NOON, THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
WE'LL HAVE SOME LINGERING SPOTTY, LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES THROUGH AND THE LOW MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH. WHEN IT'S ALL
SAID AND DONE, RAIN TOTALS WILL MOSTLY BE UNDER 0.25", THOUGH A
FEW SPOTS (MAINLY NORTHEAST NE) COULD SEE AMOUNTS APPROACH
0.50". OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S TODAY
WITH AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY, THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS WITH A SURFACE LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT THAT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT,
MANY MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 40-50+ MPH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER, WHILE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS MEAN SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF SIMILAR VALUES AND HREF SHOWS A 60-90% CHANCE OF SEEING
WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN NORTHEAST NE. IN ADDITION,
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD FURTHER HELP TO BRING THOSE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE, WITH A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGESTING WE COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN TOWARD HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA (58 MPH GUSTS). THERE WAS SOME DISCUSSION OF ISSUING A
HIGH WIND WATCH, BUT DECIDED AGAINST IT IN OUR FORECAST AREA, AS
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THAT WE SEE MORE THAN JUST A FEW
SPORADIC GUSTS OF THAT LEVEL. WE'LL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW TO CLIP FAR NORTHEAST NE AS THE SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS OVER MN AND SOME MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK
SIDE. FOR NOW, HAVE A 15% CHANCE IN KNOX/CEDAR COUNTIES. IF WE
DO HAPPEN TO GET ANY DECENT SNOW SHOWERS, THE SNOW COMBINED WITH
THESE WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD
KEEP THINGS QUIET WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WE'LL BE MUCH
COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. FOR FRIDAY,
GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SNOW TO SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOME COMBINATION OF NE/IA/MN.
MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES A 30-50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1" OF SNOW IN
NORTHEAST NE INTO WEST-CENTRAL IA THROUGH MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, STILL A LOT OF FINER SCALE DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT
LIKE TIMING, TEMPERATURES, AND EXACT LOCATION. BOTTOM LINE, IT'S
LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION COULD SEE SOME
MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ON FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, FROM SATURDAY ONWARD, THERE REMAINS A LOT OF
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE REGARDING ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOES LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SOMETIME SATURDAY AND LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WHERE IT DEVELOPS, WITH MANY
SOLUTIONS KEEPING IT MOSTLY TO OUR EAST AND SOME DEVELOPING IT
RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THERE'S EVEN MORE MODEL SPREAD HEADING INTO
SUNDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY INTERACTS WITH A BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA AND LEADS
TO EVEN MORE PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING SOME SNOW. MEANWHILE,
OTHER SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY IS WELL OUT OF THE AREA AND
INCOMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS WEAK, WITH ONLY SPOTTY ADDITIONAL
PRECIP AT BEST. SO BOTTOM LINE, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS QUITE LOW.
MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GIVE AT LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA
ENOUGH SNOW FOR SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS, BUT DETAILS ON TIMING,
LOCATION, AND DEGREE OF IMPACTS ARE VERY FUZZY AT THIS POINT. IF
YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS, CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
FORECAST. WHAT WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT IN IS EVEN COOLER AIR
ARRIVES BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
THE FOG OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN IOWA HAS REMAINED
EAST OF OMA THIS EVENING. LOW CEILINGS, RAIN SHOWERS, AND FOG
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS. THE PROGRESSION
OF THESE FEATURES HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY FALL. FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT FOG IS
ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO CAUSE IMPACTS BETWEEN 09-10Z THIS
MORNING AT LNK AND OFK INITIALLY. OMA FOLLOWS A SHORT TIME
LATER. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY FALL TO IFR AFTER
THIS. IFR CEILINGS MAY ARRIVE SOONER THAN FORECAST, BUT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS ARE MIXED BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE IFR CEILINGS WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LIKELY AS A RESULT. THAT SAID, FLUCTUATING
VISIBILITY IS ANTICIPATED AT TIMES. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND 700 FT. A BRIEF REDUCTION TO BELOW 500 FT COULD
DEVELOP, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE
REMAINS ABOVE THIS THRESHOLD. RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE OR EXIT THE AREA BY MID-MORNING, AROUND 15Z. IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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