709
FXUS63 KOAX 261139
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
539 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING AT LEAST MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS TO PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST-
CENTRAL IOWA WHERE THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF AT LEAST AN
INCH OF SNOW.
- WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT TRAVEL
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
- BITTER COLD IS SET AFTER SATURDAY'S SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 20S AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CUTOFF LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR
OUR STRONG WINDS TUESDAY SPINNING THROUGH MN/WI WITH THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA REMAINING UNDER A DECENTLY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT, NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
CONTINUING TO GUST 25 TO 40 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY, WITH ANY
GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 20 MPH BY AROUND 6 PM. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THANKSGIVING AND KEEP US QUIET, THOUGH
WE'LL BE COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE'LL SEE SNOW CHANCES
ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, A SURFACE LOW SPINS UP OVER CO/WY, AND A BAND
OF FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SD/NE/MN/IA BORDER
AREA. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME DRY AIR IN PLACE, STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL ADVECT IN A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH A BAND OF SNOW
STARTING TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE
ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE REGARDING IN BAND
PLACEMENT, OVERALL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, WHERE AROUND 3-6" COULD FALL IN
THE HEART OF THE BAND. MEANWHILE OVER OUR AREA, THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 30-60% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1 INCH
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NORFOLK TO OMAHA AND ONLY ABOUT A
10-30% CHANCE OF 2 INCHES ANYWHERE IN THAT SAME AREA. SO
OVERALL, THINK IT WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, THOUGH MAYBE A FEW SLICK SPOTS DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NE INTO WEST-CENTRAL IA.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY AND
WHILE WE'LL STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DRY AIR ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT BAND, THE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO SATURATE THINGS
SATURDAY MORNING. THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE 1) PRECIP
TYPE/CHANGEOVER TIME AT A GIVEN LOCATION AND 2) HOW LONG SNOW
LINGERS IN THE AREA. BOTH OF THESE WILL LARGELY HINGE ON THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THERE'S ACTUALLY REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ITS TRACK WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE, THOUGH OF COURSE
JUST SMALL CHANGES IN TRACK COULD HAVE NOTABLE IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING PRECIP TYPE. CONSENSUS CURRENTLY
SUGGESTS THE LOW TRACKS ROUGHLY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY
SATURDAY THEN PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KS AND INTO MO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SNOW NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AND A PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NE AND
FAR SOUTHWEST IA WITH A FAIRLY CLEAN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW (I.E.
LITTLE TO NO MIX) AS COLD AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM EXITS
FAIRLY QUICKLY, WITH PRECIP COMING TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.
NOW FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. OBVIOUSLY, SNOW WILL LEAD TO
SLICK ROADS, BUT EVEN AREAS THAT SEE MAINLY RAIN COULD SEE THAT
MOISTURE FREEZE ONTO ROADWAYS AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN LATER
IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION, GUIDANCE IS TRENDING UPWARD ON WINDS,
WITH GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING 40+ KTS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. FURTHERMORE, EPS GUIDANCE SHOWS A 50-90% CHANCE OF SEEING
GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35 MPH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO VERY POOR VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE
QUESTION THERE IS WILL THE STRONGEST WINDS OVERLAP WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW. SO OVERALL, LOTS OF SMALLER SCALE DETAILS TO WORK
OUT, BUT IT'S LOOKING LIKELY (50-70% CHANCE) THAT WE'LL SEE AT
LEAST MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS IN A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA SATURDAY.
IF YOU HAVE ANY TRAVEL PLANS, MAKE SURE TO CHECK THE FORECAST
AND ADJUST IF NEEDED.
GUIDANCE IS ALSO STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS FAVORING DECREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE
DOES LOOK TO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS
ITSELF, BUT THERE REMAINS SPREAD ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THAT
PRECIP, WITH CONSENSUS LARGELY KEEPING IT TO OUR SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (ONLY A 10-15% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR US IN
THAT TIMEFRAME). OTHERWISE, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, IT WILL BE MUCH
COLDER SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS/TEENS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS AND WIND CHILLS COULD DIP BELOW 0 FOR MANY
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
2500-3500 FT CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AT OFK BEFORE THEY SCATTER OUT. VFR CONDTIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THEREAFTER, WITH SOME PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COTNINUE GUSTING 20-30 KTS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST, DROPPING BELOW 10 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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