201
FXUS63 KOAX 262110
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING AT LEAST MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS TO PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST-
CENTRAL IOWA WHERE THERE IS A 50-60% CHANCE OF AT LEAST AN
INCH OF SNOW.
- WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT TRAVEL
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW COMBINED WITH GUSTY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SNOWFALL TRENDS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY, SO IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS, CONSIDER DELAYING
THEM.
- BITTER COLD IS SET AFTER SATURDAY'S SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 20S AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES YESTERDAY'S WINDY SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW POURS IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TAKING A LOOK AT THE
SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND KANSAS, WITH A FRONT STRETCHING UP THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT RANGE. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TODAY
AND TOMORROW QUIET AND COOL WITH HIGHS NEARLY IDENTICAL, TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. GUSTS TODAY IN THE 20-25 MPH
RANGE WILL FALL OFF THIS EVENING FOR VERY QUIET WINDS TOMORROW,
MAKING FOR AN EXCELLENT HOLIDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
BY FRIDAY, WE BEGIN TO SEE A PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID/UPPER TROUGH
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR WEST, TRAILED BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM BC/ALBERTA. LEFTOVER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE IN THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL HELP SET UP A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS, RAMPING UP WINDS DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION,
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO DEVELOP, PROVIDING STRONG
LIFT THAT WILL MATERIALIZE A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
BAND OF SNOW (WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN TO THE SOUTHERN END OF
IT). THIS BAND WILL LIKELY BEGIN SHOWING UP ON RADAR FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
AS HIGH AS 20 DEGREES WILL WORK TO SUBLIMATE/EVAPORATE
FLAKES/DROPS INITIALLY. THIS BAND SHOULD START OUT IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL SD AND EASTERN NEBRASKA 6 AM, BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD
GRADUALLY OVER TIME. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERENT
IDEAS FROM ONE MODEL TO THE NEXT IN TERMS OF ITS SPEED, WHICH
WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL BE OVERCOME BY THE FALLING
PRECIPITATION. IT SEEMS LIKE A SAFE BET TO EXPECT TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES FROM MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (GENERALLY LESS THAN
AN INCH), FURTHER COMPLICATED BY STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS OF
25-35+ MPH. AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 LOOK POISED ONLY SEE A
TRACE OR LESS.
NOW ONTO SATURDAY'S WINTER SYSTEM... SYNOPTICALLY, THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING FROM THE CLIPPER AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH ARE SET TO COME TOGETHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE (WHOSE LOW PASSES
ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI), BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA. FRIDAY'S BANDED PRECIPITATION WILL SERVE AS THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY, FILLING IN TO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE ABUNDANT FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS THIS
SYSTEM FILLS IN, IT WILL PIVOT ACROSS IOWA AND EJECT TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST, LEAVING US DRY BY SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY
OF LIFT IN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, INCLUDING THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE MEANING THAT HEALTHY SNOW RATIOS WILL COME INTO
PLAY.
THERE ARE STILL QUITE A FEW THINGS THAT ARE YET TO BE NAILED DOWN
FOR THIS SYSTEM, BUT THERE ARE THINGS THAT WE CAN SAY WITH
CERTAINTY. FIRST THING IS THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BOOM-OR-BUST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. DEPENDING ON HOW THE TWO COMBINING
WAVES PHASE TOGETHER, WE COULD SEE A POTENT BAND DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND TRACK INTO IOWA, OR IT MAY WAIT TO DEVELOP OVER
THERE. AMOUNTS WILL DROP TO BELOW 2 INCHES FROM 7+ OVER A SHORT
DISTANCE. THE SECOND CERTAINTY IS THAT IOWA WILL BE A DIRECT
HIT FOR VERY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL. WE WOULD ARGUE AGAINST TRAVEL
PLANS IN GENERAL WITH THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
SATURDAY, BUT URGE THOSE GOING TO THE NORTH OR EAST TO
RECONSIDER. THE LAST ONE IS THAT VERY STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY OF 40-50 MPH WITH
LINGERING SNOWFALL, MAKING FOR NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WITH
EVEN MODERATE SNOWFALL.
NOW ONTO SOME UNCERTAINTIES... LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO
EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT SPREAD BETWEEN THEM, WITH THE ECMWF AND GEFS
SHOWING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL AND KEEPING A DEEP
ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE LOWEST 300 MB BELOW FREEZING WHILE THE NAM
HAS THAT ISOTHERMAL LAYER TOUCHING FREEZING AND EATING AWAY AT SNOW
POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION, IT KEEPS STRONG LIFT OVER THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY WITHOUT ANY DENDRITES TO INTRODUCE A FREEZING DRIZZLE RISK
BEFORE SNOW STARTS. IF WE DO HAVE A WARMER THERMAL PROFILE AND
QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE ALOFT, WE'LL BE DEALING WITH A LESS SNOWY, BUT
JUST AS GROSS SATURDAY WITH ICY ROADS AND A SLOPPY WINTRY MIX AS
OPPOSED TO SNOWY ROADS.
AS OF NOW, WE'VE BUMPED UP THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY, WITH AMOUNTS
CLOSER TO A DUSTING NEAR FALLS CITY WHILE AREAS OF WESTERN IOWA SEE
5+ INCHES. IF WE DO SEE SNOW BOOM (RATHER THAN BUST), EXPECT TO SEE
A WEST-TO-EAST BAND OF ACCUMULATIONS REACHING 4-6 INCHES OR MORE. AS
OF NOW, INTERSTATE 80 AND AREAS NORTH ARE FAIR GAME FOR THIS BAND.
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR
WESTERN IOWA EARLY SATURDAY, WITH SNOWFALL PEAKING DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING
OFF/MOVING EAST AFTER 6 PM. ONCE AGAIN, IF YOU CAN AVOID TRAVEL
SATURDAY, PLEASE DO SO. TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE IF YOU PLAN ON
DRIVING VERY FAR INTO IOWA WHERE 8+ INCHES ARE FORECAST.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND:
THE MAIN STORY OF THE LATTER FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES, WHICH ARRIVE SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. AS SATURDAY'S SYSTEM DEEPENS AND PIVOTS TO THE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE JET STREAM TAKES A DIP SOUTHWARD,
REINFORCED BY NORTHERLY 500 MB FLOW AND AIDED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE TO GET COOL AND STAY COOL THROUGH THIS TIME. ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE DIPPING JET STREAM WILL BE A MID/UPPER WAVE THAT
DRAGS ITS AXIS THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA MONDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCTLY COLDER THERMAL
PROFILE/GREATER DGZ DEPTH COMPARED TO SATURDAY, BUT WITH LESS
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO CURB OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS. PREVIOUS RUNS IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAD A MORE SOUTHERN LEAN TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL,
WHICH HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, BUT STILL PRIMARILY AFFECTING
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR, WITH SUNDAY AND TUESDAY SEEING SINGLE TO
BELOW-ZERO CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING, WITH THE COLDEST OF THE THREE
BEING MONDAY (RANGING FROM 0 TO 10 BELOW ZERO). BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP
ON THE WAY OUT THE DOOR OR MAKE SURE THOSE WAITING AT THE BUS STOP
ARE PREPARED FOR IT!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE TO START THE TAF PERIOD,
HOLDING ONTO GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE MID-TO-LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SPEEDS OF 5 KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE SAME DIRECTION. LOW CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED
TO ERODE THIS MORNING, WITH ALL-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE IN BY 19Z, LASTING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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