602
FXUS63 KOAX 112143
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
343 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT, WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER INTO WEST-CENTRAL IOWA INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. A FEW SLICK SPOTS MAY LINGER.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY (60-90% CHANCE). THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SLICK, SNOW-COVERED ROADS WILL BE IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST-CENTRAL IOWA (40-60% CHANCE).
- TEMPERATURES TURN MUCH COLDER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE WARMING AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
BE THE COLDEST NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW 0 AND WIND CHILLS APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN SOME SPOTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WAS LINGERING ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER INTO WEST-
CENTRAL IA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEBCAMS IN THE AREA SHOWED A
FEW PATCHES OF SNOW ON THE ROADS, BUT A VAST MAJORITY WERE
CLEAR, AND DOT WEBSITES REPORTED THE SAME IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE, THERE WAS A PRETTY LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH MID 20S IN WEST-CENTRAL IA AND MID 40S TOWARD THE
JEFFERSON COUNTY AREA AS OF 3 PM (JUST ON THE WARM SIDE OF A
STATIONARY FRONT).
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, WE'LL SEE SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
AREA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHING TO OUR SOUTH AND
COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO SPILL IN WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AREA-WIDE FOLLOWED BY
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SNOW CHANCES LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY WILL SLIDE
THROUGH OUR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UP NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE SD/NE/IA BORDER AREA AND LEADING TO
EDGING INTO NORTHEAST NE BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME
SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE REGARDING THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND AND WITH A SHARP GRADIENT EXPECTED ON THE
SOUTHWEST EDGE, EVEN A SLIGHT SHIFT (E.G. THE WIDTH OF A
COUNTY) IN STORM TRACK COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
SLIPPERY, SNOW-COVERED ROADS AND NO SNOW AT ALL. CONSENSUS
CURRENTLY HAS THE 50/50 LINE FOR AT LEAST 1" ROUGHLY THROUGH
FREMONT TO OMAHA TO RED OAK AND EXTENDED NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST
FROM THOSE POINTS. CONSENSUS ALSO SUGGESTS TOTALS IN THE CENTER
OF THE BAND SHOULD BE AROUND 3-4", THOUGH IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT
SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE HINT AT A FRONTOGENESIS/FRONTOLYSIS
"COUPLET" ALONG WITH SOME CO-LOCATED SLANTWISE INSTABILITY THAT
COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED BANDING AND INCREASED TOTALS IN THE
CENTER. FOR NOW, IT SEEMS LIKE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE JUST
NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY GIVEN LATEST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH, BUT AGAIN, IT
WON'T TAKE MUCH OF A TRACK CHANGE TO BRING IT BACK TO OUR AREA.
FINALLY, GIVEN THE COLDER AIR, SNOW WILL BE A LITTLE FLUFFIER
THAN OTHER RECENT SNOWFALL, THOUGH WITH WIND GUSTS OF "ONLY"
15-20 MPH, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A MAJOR
IMPACT.
THIS SNOW SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SATURDAY NIGHT.
WITH RESULTING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO TANK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW 0 BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH PERHAPS A FEW PLACES EVEN GETTING INTO THE
10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE. AGAIN, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, BUT WITH
THOSE COLDER TEMPERATURES, ANY SMALL PUFF OF WIND COULD LEAD TO
WIND CHILLS OCCASIONALLY NEARING -20 (MOST LIKELY IN FAR
NORTHEAST NE INTO WEST- CENTRAL IA).
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING AND (DEAMPLIFYING) UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EDGING IN TO HELP WARM THINGS UP FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
WHILE HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE TEENS AND MID 20S,
MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES WARMER IN MOST LOCATIONS,
FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY, GUIDANCE FAVORS US STAYING DRY THROUGH
MID-WEEK UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE HINTS OF ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OR THURSDAY, THOUGH
STILL LOTS OF MODEL SPREAD, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT FAR OUT
LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH A
FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL IA, ALONG WITH A SPOTTY
LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT (AROUND OR AFTER 06Z)
AND LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS, BUT A FEW 18-20+ KT GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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