174
FXUS63 KOAX 121125
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT ECHOES MAY PUT DOWN A COUPLE FLURRIES THIS MORNING, BUT
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
SATURDAY (60-90% CHANCE), WITH 2-4 INCHES EXPECTED IN AREAS
UNDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
LINE.
- TEMPERATURES TURN MUCH COLDER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE WARMING AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
BE THE COLDEST NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW 0 AND WIND CHILLS APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN SOME SPOTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE IS TRIGGERING A FEW ECHOES ON RADAR
ALONG A BAND OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. DRY AIR IS
KEEPING MOST OF ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND, SOUNDINGS
WOULD INDICATE EITHER SLEET PELLETS OR FLURRIES IF ANYTHING DOES
REACH THE GROUND. SHOULDN'T BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT ANYTHING THOUGH.
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH ANOTHER PUSH
OF COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA MOVES IN KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID
20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
ANOTHER, MORE DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH BEST CHANCES FOR 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL IOWA, WHERE WE
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SNOW BAND, AND I EXPECT THE GRADIENT OF
SNOW-TO- NO- SNOW TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AS WE APPROACH THE
EVENT. THIS IS GOING TO BE A REALLY TRICKY FORECAST ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS BAND AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN AREA THAT
SEES A SHARP CUTOFF OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW DOWN TO LITTLE-TO-
NOTHING. FOR NOW I ANTICIPATE THIS CUT-OFF TO BE SOMEWHERE
AROUND A LINE FROM OAKLAND, IA TO FORT CALHOUN, TO SCRIBNER,
AND ORCHARD. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE MAY SEE A DUSTING OR LESS
OF SNOW.
A PUSH OF EVEN COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY PEAKING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH WINDS WON'T BE STRONG, IT
WILL BE BREEZY MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND -10 BY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO REBOUND. WHILE IT WON'T BE MUCH
WARMER ON SUNDAY, WE DO START TO SEE THE RIDGE OVER THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST START TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHICH WILL TRIGGER THE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY REBOUND NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ON MONDAY, AND
MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY. COLDEST AREAS WILL BE WHERE A
SNOWPACK IS IN PLACE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA, WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA APPROACH 60 DEGREES
ON TUESDAY. SOUNDS LIKE A GREAT DAY TO FIND A REASON TO VISIT
OUR FRIENDS IN HASTINGS.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
CONUS BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, KEEPING MILDER CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE OF US WHO HATE
THE COLD, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'RE FINALLY KICKING TO THE CURB THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT'S BEEN KEEPING US COLD SINCE THANKSGIVING.
CPC IS FORECASTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK, WHICH WOULD KEEP US GENERALLY ON THE MILD-SIDE
OF NORMAL THROUGH CHRISTMAS. THOUGH THIS DOESN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A WHITE CHRISTMAS, IT DOES MAKE IT LOOK LESS LIKELY.
WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
MVFR CIGS ARE SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS LIFTING TO
VFR (70% CHANCE) THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTH. WE'LL SEE CIGS FALL AGAIN TONIGHT AS SNOW SPREADS INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, MOVING INTO KOFK AROUND 04Z, AND KOMA AROUND
06-08Z. SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHTER AND MORE INTERMITTENT AT KOMA,
SO LEFT VIS A BIT HIGHER THAN KOFK. SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
KLNK, BUT WE STILL SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS MAKE IT INTO KLNK LATER
IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
SATURDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
SATURDAY FOR IAZ043.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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