313
FXUS63 KOAX 121736
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1136 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME FLURRIES MAY LINGER THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
SATURDAY (60-90% CHANCE), WITH 2-4 INCHES EXPECTED IN AREAS
UNDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
LINE.
- TEMPERATURES TURN MUCH COLDER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE WARMING AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
BE THE COLDEST NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW 0 AND WIND CHILLS APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN SOME SPOTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE IS TRIGGERING A FEW ECHOES ON RADAR
ALONG A BAND OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. DRY AIR IS
KEEPING MOST OF ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND, SOUNDINGS
WOULD INDICATE EITHER SLEET PELLETS OR FLURRIES IF ANYTHING DOES
REACH THE GROUND. SHOULDN'T BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT ANYTHING THOUGH.
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH ANOTHER PUSH
OF COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA MOVES IN KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID
20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
ANOTHER, MORE DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH BEST CHANCES FOR 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL IOWA, WHERE WE
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SNOW BAND, AND I EXPECT THE GRADIENT OF
SNOW-TO- NO- SNOW TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AS WE APPROACH THE
EVENT. THIS IS GOING TO BE A REALLY TRICKY FORECAST ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS BAND AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN AREA THAT
SEES A SHARP CUTOFF OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW DOWN TO LITTLE-TO-
NOTHING. FOR NOW I ANTICIPATE THIS CUT-OFF TO BE SOMEWHERE
AROUND A LINE FROM OAKLAND, IA TO FORT CALHOUN, TO SCRIBNER,
AND ORCHARD. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE MAY SEE A DUSTING OR LESS
OF SNOW.
A PUSH OF EVEN COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY PEAKING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH WINDS WON'T BE STRONG, IT
WILL BE BREEZY MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND -10 BY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO REBOUND. WHILE IT WON'T BE MUCH
WARMER ON SUNDAY, WE DO START TO SEE THE RIDGE OVER THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST START TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHICH WILL TRIGGER THE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY REBOUND NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ON MONDAY, AND
MID 40S TO UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY. COLDEST AREAS WILL BE WHERE A
SNOWPACK IS IN PLACE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA, WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA APPROACH 60 DEGREES
ON TUESDAY. SOUNDS LIKE A GREAT DAY TO FIND A REASON TO VISIT
OUR FRIENDS IN HASTINGS.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
CONUS BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, KEEPING MILDER CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE OF US WHO HATE
THE COLD, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'RE FINALLY KICKING TO THE CURB THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT'S BEEN KEEPING US COLD SINCE THANKSGIVING.
CPC IS FORECASTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK, WHICH WOULD KEEP US GENERALLY ON THE MILD-SIDE
OF NORMAL THROUGH CHRISTMAS. THOUGH THIS DOESN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A WHITE CHRISTMAS, IT DOES MAKE IT LOOK LESS LIKELY.
WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
MVFR CEILINGS WILL STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH
COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS AT OMA AND LNK THIS EVENING. COULD ALSO
SEE A FEW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT OFK, THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING IMPACTS WITH THOSE. A BAND OF SNOW WILL START TO MOVE
IN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND STILL COULD CLIP OFK AND
OMA, BUT TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT TO HEAVIER SNOW STAYING TO THE
NORTHEAST. FOR NOW, KEPT MVFR VISIBILITY MENTION AT BOTH SITES,
BUT A FEW LOCALIZED BURSTS OF SNOW COULD LEAD TO BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING. ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE'S A CHANCE
(20-30%) ALL TAF SITES SEE NO SNOW AND NO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING 18-22 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING A BIT AND
BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
SATURDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
SATURDAY FOR IAZ043.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...CA
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