963
FXUS63 KOAX 130509
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1109 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING, MAINLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. A FEW SLICK SPOTS COULD
DEVELOP, BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS.
- SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY (60-90% CHANCE). EXPECT SLICK,
SNOW-COVERED ROADS NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER, WHERE 2-4" OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- TEMPERATURES TURN MUCH COLDER THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE WARMING
AGAIN BY MONDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT,
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW 0 AND WIND
CHILLS APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN SOME SPOTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW WERE FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TODAY AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS PASSING
THROUGH. DOT WEBCAMS IN NORTHEAST NE SHOWED A FEW SPOTS WHERE A
DUSTING OF SNOW WAS PRESENT ON ROADWAYS, BUT OVERALL SHOULDN'T
BE TOO IMPACTFUL. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS
SNOW COMES TO AN END BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MAYBE 1-2
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY AND LEAD TO A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS SD AND IA,
WITH THE SOUTHWEST EDGE CLIPPING NORTHEAST NE. AS THE WAVE MOVES
IN, A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/FRONTOLYSIS
"COUPLET" WILL DEVELOP IN THE AREA WITH SOME SUGGESTIONS THAT
SLANTWISE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AND COULD LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCED BANDING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE MAIN SNOW BAND. GUIDANCE
TODAY HAS GENERALLY BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN
BAND, WITH THE HEAVIEST PORTION (3-4+") FAVORED TO STRETCH FROM
BETWEEN SIOUX FALLS AND SIOUX CITY DOWN TOWARD DES MOINES,
LARGELY OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STILL, IT LOOKS LIKE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD STILL SEE 2-3+"
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. IMMEDIATELY
SOUTHWEST OF THAT, WE'RE STILL EXPECTING A SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOW
AMOUNTS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SLICK, SNOW-COVERED ROADS ON ONE
SIDE OF A COUNTY AND LITTLE TO NO SNOW ON THE OTHER SIDE. WHERE
EXACTLY THIS CUTOFF IS REMAINS ONE OF THE MAIN QUESTIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM, AS MODELS ARE STILL WOBBLING A LITTLE BIT ON THAT.
FOR NOW, CONSENSUS SUGGESTS PLACES LIKE OMAHA AND NORFOLK WILL
SEE MAYBE A DUSTING AT MOST WITH AN INCH OR 2 JUST 30 MILES TO
THE NORTHEAST. ONE MORE THING ON THE SNOW IS THAT MODEL
SOUNDINGS IN/NEAR THE PRIMARY SNOW BAND SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN, SO THAT SNOW
SHOULD BE QUITE FLUFFY AND COULD ADD UP QUICKLY. HOWEVER, YOU
DON'T HAVE TO GO VERY FAR SOUTHWEST TO SEE A WARM NOSE AT AROUND
700 MB (NOT NEARLY WARM ENOUGH TO MELT THE SNOW) THAT WILL
LIMIT THAT DGZ DEPTH AND REDUCE SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT (THOUGH IT'LL
STILL BE FAIRLY FLUFFY). FINALLY, GIVEN THE FLUFFIER SNOW
THERE'S ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH HOW EASILY IT CAN BLOW AND DRIFT,
BUT WITH WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 15-20 MPH, THAT SHOULDN'T BE TOO
IMPACTFUL FOR US.
ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION FOR SATURDAY IS THAT A FEW PIECES OF
GUIDANCE HINT AT FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL NEAR THE NE/KS/MO
BORDER AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RAP HAS
GENERALLY BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SIGNAL, SHOWING
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SATURATION TO AROUND 1
KM AGL. HOWEVER, MOST GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE LATEST RAP)
SUGGESTS WE WON'T QUITE BE ABLE TO SATURATE ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE, THINKING THOSE AREAS WILL END UP STAYING
DRY, BUT STILL GIVE IT MAYBE A 10% CHANCE OF SEEING A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE IN SOME AREAS DOWN THERE.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT, SETTING UP FOR A VERY COLD SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND -10 ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NE INTO WEST- CENTRAL IA TO 5 ABOVE TOWARD JEFFERSON
COUNTY, NE. DESPITE THE EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS, ANY SMALL PUFF OF
WIND COULD LEAD TO SOME WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -20 IN THE
COLDEST AREAS. IT'S NOT LOOKING WIDESPREAD OR LONG ENOUGH IN
DURATION FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT REGARDLESS OF
ADVISORY, IT LOOKS COLD!
IT WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S, BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH BY THE END OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL START TO EDGE INTO THE AREA MONDAY, WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP TO START THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
40S MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY MID 40S TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL START TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD MID-WEEK,
BUT WE SHOULD STAY MILD INTO THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT WE SEE A SYSTEM PASS BY TO OUR NORTH SOMETIME
LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, THOUGH STILL LOTS OF SPREAD REGARDING
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON THAT IS QUITE LOW. LOOKING LONGER TERM, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
A FEW BANDS OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING BEFORE A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOWFALL PUSHES INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF
HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KOFK AND KOMA, EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH TO MVFR, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, ACROSS ALL THREE TERMINALS TONIGHT. THE BAND OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE KOFK BY 09-12Z AND KOMA BY
10-13Z BEFORE EXITING BY LATE MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT KOMA (11-14Z), THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW (20%) IN SNOW REACHING KLNK. CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP AND
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 8-12 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ043.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...WOOD
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