440
FXUS63 KOAX 131714
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1114 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST TRAVEL IMPACTS NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER, WHERE 2-4" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AND A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. SPOTTY SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH LIGHTER SNOW.
- TEMPERATURES TURN MUCH COLDER THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE WARMING
AGAIN BY MONDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW 0 AND WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN SOME SPOTS.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK, DROPPING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
THE WELL-ADVERTISED SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH LATE THIS
MORNING, THOUGH SOME SMALLER SCALE SNOW BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF IT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
REVEAL STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME LOW LEVEL SATURATION
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IN
PLACE UNTIL MAYBE 3-4 PM WHEN PROFILES START TO DRY OUT, WITH
MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING INTO EARLY EVENING. WHILE
ACCUMULATION WITH THESE HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIMITED, THEY ARE
LEADING TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
THE FORECASTED SNOW BAND HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL IOWA. CAMERAS AT HARTINGTON, EMERSON,
SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN INTO ONAWA SHOW SNOW-COVERED ROADS WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW ON THE WAY. THIS SNOW BAND IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD UNTIL THE SNOWFALL WRAPS UP AROUND NOON
TODAY. GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOVELABLE SNOW IS UP IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WITH THIS SNOW BAND LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS IT DROPS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE PLATTE RIVER. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY FREEZING
DRIZZLE AS INDICATED IN THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS. IF THIS MATERIALIZES, WE COULD SEE A FEW SLICK SPOTS
DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SURFACES. RIGHT NOW THERE'S ABOUT
A 10-25% CHANCE.
THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WITH
AN ARCTIC HIGH SLIDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND IT INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. ARCTIC AIR WILL MEAN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT DROP TO AROUND ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS LOW AS -15.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO SLIGHTLY REBOUND ON SUNDAY AS SKIES
CLEAR AND THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN HANGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST FOR THE PAST WEEK FINALLY STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS
WILL SHUNT THE ARCTIC AIR OFF TO THE EAST BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION THIS WEEK. THOUGH SUNDAY WILL
STILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S, HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL WARM UP INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50. THEN BY TUESDAY
SOME AREAS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL WARM INTO THE MID
50S, POSSIBLY NEAR 60 TUESDAY, BUT LIKELY NEAR 60 ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD, WE SEE THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
STANDING WAVE OVER THE CONUS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PAST
WEEK. THIS BRINGS A SHIFT TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ENHANCING THE WARM-AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING. DRY AIR WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
FROM FALLING WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT WE WILL SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND. NOW THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
DOESN'T HAVE THAT DIRECT TAP TO THE ARCTIC LIKE THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS, SO WHILE THOSE BROUGHT FRIGID AIR, HIGHS THURSDAY GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S. VERY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STILL,
AFTER THE SYSTEM TODAY, WE DON'T SEE ANY REAL CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AT LEAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO PUSH THROUGH. SNOW LOOKS TO COME TO AN
END BY MID AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING INTO
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
HALF INCH. CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT SHORTLY THEREAFTER,
THOUGH A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE HINT AT SOME LINGERING MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS, OR MAYBE EVEN SOME FOG IN NEAR AND WEST OF OFK
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THERE IS ONLY ABOUT A 10-20% CHANCE OF
THIS HAPPENING, SO DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON FALLING UNDER 10 KTS THIS
EVENING. WINDS THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ043.
UPDATE...CA
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...CA
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