370
FXUS63 KOAX 141717
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1117 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER WEEK AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S MONDAY AND 40S
AND 50S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- WINDY THURSDAY WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS OF
AT LEAST 30 MPH OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST (60-90% CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
IT'S BITTER COLD OUTSIDE THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM -6 TO +6 DEGREES AND WIND CHILL DOWN TO -15. CLEAR SKIES
AND RELATIVELY CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP A FEW MORE
DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK.
MODELS SHOW AN ARCTIC HIGH THAT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS LEADING TO THE FRIGID COLD AIR IN PLACE. GOOD NEWS FOR
THOSE WHO HATE COLD, WE'LL SEE THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN LOCKED
OVER THE ROCKIES FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO FINALLY START TO PUSH
EASTWARD, KICKING THIS ARCTIC AIR OFF TO THE EAST. WHILE TODAY
WILL STILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-TEENS TO MID-20S,
WE'LL SEE A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
THIS WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG JET STREAK
PUSHING INTO THE PACNW STARTS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND ALLOW FOR A WEAK TROUGH TO SLIP DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE WE ONLY GET A GLANCING BLOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM, WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS GOING TO OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE, REALLY
BEING THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT THING TO TALK ABOUT OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
DEVELOPING A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER MINNESOTA BEFORE IT
CONTINUES OVER INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
WE'LL SEE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
RAMP UP BECOMING GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG WARM-AIR
ADVECTION ONGOING WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW-TO-
MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS
WHEN THEY ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING AS WE SEE STRONG PVA MIX DOWN
WINDS POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 50 TO 60 KT (~60-70 MPH). RIGHT NOW
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA, WITH POTENTIAL FOR 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS FROM THIS SYSTEM,
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW LAST WEDNESDAY.
WHAT WILL DIFFER FROM LAST WEDNESDAY IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WON'T
HAVE THAT ARCTIC TAP TO BRING IN FRIGID AIR BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN GOING INTO THURSDAY, BUT STILL BE
FAIRLY NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S FRIDAY MORNING. GOING INTO FRIDAY WE'LL SEE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
BIRTH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL BRING BACK GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS BACK APPROACHING 50 DEGREES. BUT WITH THE RISE, COMES
THE FALL AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY
BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN ON THE COOLER BUT STILL MILD
SIDE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
FOR SUNDAY.
NOTICE I SAID NOTHING ABOUT PRECIPITATION. WHILE THERE IS A VERY
LOW CHANCE (15% OR LESS) OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA STATE LINE, IT'S A NOMINAL
CHANCE AT BEST WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO STAY TO OUR NORTH.
THAT'S OUR ONLY "CHANCE" THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS THE
PATTERN LOOKS MAINLY DRY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING, WITH SOME GUSTS OF 18-24 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ALSO EXPECT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
AT 1500 FT AGL OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 45 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...CA
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