444
FXUS63 KOAX 151736
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1136 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER WEEK AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S MONDAY AND 40S
AND 50S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY (15-20% CHANCE) FALLING MAINLY AS RAIN, THOUGH A
BRIEF TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE AT END.
- WINDY THURSDAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 40 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST (50-80% CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE SHOWS THE POLAR JET AND STORM
TRACK UP TO OUR NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS DOWN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA
THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. OVERNIGHT A WARM
FRONT MOVED THROUGH BRINGING IN GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WHICH HAVE HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER OVERNIGHT,
STAYING UP IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. WE'LL SEE SIGNIFICANT
WARM-AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA TODAY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE PLACES WITH A DEEPER SNOWPACK IN FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL IOWA WHICH WILL PROBABLY
ONLY GET UP INTO THE UPPER 30S. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THROUGH A
WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THERE ISN'T ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
FOR THE FRONT TO BRING IN DESPITE THE WIND SHIFT.
AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY, WE'LL SEE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SHIFT
WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN, DESPITE THE WIND SHIFT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD, WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE INJECTION OF A
STRONG JET STREAK FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE PACNW. THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS JET STREAK WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY DEVELOPING A MORE
DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE
BULK OF THIS SYSTEM STAYS TO OUR NORTH, WE WILL SEE BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEEPENS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE LOW TO OUR NORTH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WE'LL
SEE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVE, BRINGING SOME LOW-CHANCE POPS AROUND
15-20% MAINLY TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WHILE
MOST OF THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN DUE TO MILD TEMPERATURES, WE MAY
SEE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX TOWARD THE END AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE BIGGEST HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT ARRIVE ON THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WIND GUSTS OF 40+ MPH ARE LIKELY (50-80% CHANCE). IF
THIS PANS OUT, A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL COOL BACK DOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT, BUT STILL
PEAK UP IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S, SO NOT TERRIBLY COLD.
FRIDAY WE SEE ANOTHER WARM FRONT PUSH THROUGH BRINGING BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS BACK IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WE CONTINUE TO
SEE A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES THROUGH WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF COOLER AIR
ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN SIGHT, EVEN INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
A MIX OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE IN
PLACE AS OF NOW, WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WAFTING BY TO THE
NORTHEAST WELL INTO IOWA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY TREND
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY TO LESS THAN 5 KTS OVERNIGHT, BEFORE
IMPROVING TO 5-10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WHEN DIRECTIONS
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE BOARD. SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON, THERE IS A 25% CHANCE THAT MOISTURE FROM THE SNOW
MELT WILL HELP FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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