015
FXUS63 KOAX 152145
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
345 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMTH LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY (30-50% CHANCE) FALLING MAINLY AS RAIN,
THOUGH A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT END.
- WINDY THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40-50+ MPH OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. LINGERING SNOW CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD
JOIN THE WIND AND HEAVILY REDUCE VISIBILITY IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING
OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, PROPPED UP BY A DEEP SYSTEM
PUSHING MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SPILLS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. TEMPERATURES HAVE TAKEN
QUITE THE TURNAROUND, SOARING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WHILE AREAS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
60S. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THE QUICK EROSION OF
THE LIMITED SNOW THAT HAD BEEN STICKING AROUND, HELPING TO
INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE AND SIGNALING THAT CHANCES FOR FOG
FORMATION ARE CLIMBING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD COOL DOWN
INTO THE 20S, WHICH WOULD BE IN THE BALL PARK FOR HITTING
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES UNLESS WE CAN MIX OUT SOME OF THE
INCREASED DEWPOINTS. AS OF NOW, A COMPARISON OF OBSERVATIONS,
OVERNIGHT LOWS, AND MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO NORTHWEST/WESTERN-
CENTRAL IOWA AS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO FOG UP. THE LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT COOLING AND COLD AIR
DRAINING AND IF THAT DOES HAPPEN, EXPECT FOG ISSUES TO EXPAND
SOUTHWEST, ESPECIALLY INTO SOME OF THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS
ACROSS NEBRASKA.
AFTER A COOL MORNING, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO RETURN
FOR TUESDAY ALONGSIDE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. WINDS THAT HAD BEEN
LARGELY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY, AS A SURFACE
TROUGH IS DRAGGED THROUGH BY A SYSTEM WELL OFF TO THE NORTH IN
CANADA WITHOUT MUCH IMPACT TO TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
40S AND 50S, AND IF TODAY'S OVER-PERFORMING TEMPS HAVE ANY
BEARING, THERE IS LIKELY UPWARD POTENTIAL FOR THEM AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND:
THE FORECAST'S MAIN CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES IN THE FORM OF A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THAT DIVES EASTWARD FROM THE ACTION AFFECTING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, IT DEEPENS INTO A FULL-BLOWN TROUGH BEFORE QUICKLY
EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST. STRONG WINDS WILL JOIN THIS SYSTEM
BOTH IN ANTICIPATION OF IT AND WITH IT'S DEPARTURE, WITH GUSTS
WEDNESDAY OF 25-35 MPH AND HIGHER SPEEDS THURSDAY IN THE 40-50+
MPH RANGE THURSDAY. DYNAMIC TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S FOLLOWED BY HIGHS AT MIDNIGHT EARLY THURSDAY,
THAT ARE THEN FOLLOWED BY TEMPS THAT BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS LATE THURSDAY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES,
THE NBM HAS BEEN LOW-BALLING CHANCES DUE TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW QPF OUTPUT, WHILE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PUSH CHANCES TO SEE
ANYTHING CLOSER TO 40-70%. WE'RE TAKING A MEASURE APPROACH TO
PUSH THINGS IN THAT DIRECTION WITHOUT GOING ALL THE WAY, WITH
MOST OF THAT OCCURRING LATE WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. SOME
SNOW CHANCES DO LINGER INTO THURSDAY, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE FLURRY VARIETY, OWING TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE STRONG WINDS THAT HAVE SOME POTENTIAL
TO BE SNOW SHOWERS. IF THEY DO OCCUR ALONGSIDE THE STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS, IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH TO HEAVILY REDUCE VISIBILITY
DESPITE THE LIMITED OUTPUT OF SNOW.
ONCE THURSDAY IS IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR WE'LL RETURN TO QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT, WITH MOST OF THE ACTION STICKING TO THE NORTHERNMOST
TIER OR TWO OF STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND TO THE NORTHERLY DISPLACEMENT OF THE JET STREAM AND WE
WILL ENJOY ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE CHRISTMAS -- PERFECT IF YOU HAVE SOME LAST MINUTE
SHOPPING TO DO OR IF YOU HAVE PLANS WITH FAMILY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
A MIX OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE IN
PLACE AS OF NOW, WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WAFTING BY TO THE
NORTHEAST WELL INTO IOWA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY TREND
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY TO LESS THAN 5 KTS OVERNIGHT, BEFORE
IMPROVING TO 5-10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WHEN DIRECTIONS
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE BOARD. SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON, THERE IS A 25% CHANCE THAT MOISTURE FROM THE SNOW
MELT WILL HELP FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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