674
FXUS63 KOAX 161728
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMTH LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY (30-50% CHANCE) FALLING MAINLY AS RAIN,
THOUGH A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT END.
- WINDY THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40-50+ MPH OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE
RIDGE HAS SHIFTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL HELP TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
AND BRING IN A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
WE'LL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE
AIR MASS ADVECTING IN ISN'T SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SO HIGHS TODAY
WILL STILL GET INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT'S WAY OUT OF THE PACNW ON
WEDNESDAY, DEVELOPING A STRONG SURFACE LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS DEEPENS,
WE'LL SEE A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NEBRASKA
LEADING TO BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES, INCREASING POPS TO 30
TO 50% ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD KEEP
ANY PRECIP AS RAIN, THOUGH WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
RAIN-SNOW MIX AS IT COMES TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM THE WIND AS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 40+
MPH WIND GUSTS (50-80% CHANCE) WITH POTENTIAL FOR 50-65 MPH
WIND GUSTS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA (30-50% CHANCE OF GUSTS 50+ MPH).
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WE WILL SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S ACROSS THE AREA. THE COOLER AIR DOESN'T LINGER FOR LONG,
THOUGH, AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING BACK IN MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL GET BACK UP INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S, WITH
COOLEST SPOTS BEING IN IOWA WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE
LATER IN THE DAY.
THE WEEKEND IS STILL LOOKING DRY WITH AN ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW
REGIME CONTINUING TO BRING IN SHORTWAVES LEADING TO FLUCTUATIONS
IN TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY
EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 12KTS
OR LESS. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LLWS AT KOMA AND KLNK FROM AROUND
00Z-05Z THIS EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...KG
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