302
FXUS63 KOAX 171008
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
408 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMTH LINGERS THROUGH TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A BRIEF BLAST OF COLD THURSDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY, WITH A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN TOWARD THE END. WHILE LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, ANY FALLING SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS
COULD LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
- WIND SPEEDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY, WHERE WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 40-60 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CHANGE AS WE GO INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH BRINGING BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE,
THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD OR FREQUENT ENOUGH TO NEED A WIND ADVISORY
TODAY.
THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE TOMORROW AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. WE'LL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE (40-70%) FOR LIGHT
PRECIP AHEAD OF AND AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS REALLY STARTING TO RAMP
UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER 3 AM ON THURSDAY. WE'VE ISSUED A
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, HARRISON AND MONONA
COUNTIES IN IOWA, AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
EXPECTING WIND GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW LAST
WEEK, WILE AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST ARE UNDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR
WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH. WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT WITH HUMIDITY DOWN AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT AND STRONG WINDS
FRACTURING ANY FLAKES, ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL PROBABLY END UP
AS TINY NEEDLES OR SNOW GRAINS.
WINDS REALLY RELAX THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PASSING TO OUR
NORTH SLIDES OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE
BEHIND A COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS
GENERALLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD AIR MASS
DOESN'T REMAIN IN PLACE FOR LONG THOUGH AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. TIMING OF THIS FRONT HAS TRENDED
LATER LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY. STILL
LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR SNOWPACK AREAS, AND MID
40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, A ZONAL FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES AND WINDS,
BUT STAYING GENERALLY ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BROAD SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP AWAY ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY KEEP US DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH A
HANDFUL OF SILENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO BRING A LIGHT DUSTING
THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CALM NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT,
THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR FOG WORKING INTO KOMA AROUND 17/13-15Z,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE CURRENT TAF
PACKAGE. AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE IF NEEDED.
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE
TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 22-30 KTS. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT KOFK. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH CEILINGS DECREASING AS A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN WORKS INTO KOFK AND KOMA IN THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-
012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065-066-078-088.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ067-068-
089>093.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ043-
055.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ056-069-
079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...WOOD
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