669
FXUS63 KOAX 180452
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1052 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CHANCES PEAK AT 50 TO 85% ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. A HIGH WIND
WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.
- A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY (15-20% CHANCE), AND
COMBINED WITH THE WINDS, A FEW AREAS MAY SEE POOR
VISIBILITIES.
- TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE 40S FOR THE WEEKEND AND WARM BACK TO
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MID TO HIGH BASED CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE OUR OFFICE HERE IN
VALLEY HAS REACHED 52F SO FAR. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS, STILL
EXPECTING MOST TO SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 50S FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
LOOKING AT THE H5 PATTERN, ZONAL FLOW IS GENERALLY SEEN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF IS ALSO OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS SPAWNED A POWERFUL 978 MB
SFC LOW. THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER,
DRAGGING A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TOO AHEAD OF THE FEATURE COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL H8 TO H7 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AND THEN OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIPITATION FIRST ENTERING NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AFTER 00Z, THEN OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 05Z. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE WITH MOST PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE SFC FRONTAL FEATURE. POPS CURRENTLY PEAK AT 50 TO 85% ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LARGELY
TAPERING OFF BY 12Z THURSDAY. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S, WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE STRONG WINDS THAT OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE
STRONG SFC LOW COUPLED WITH STRONG H8 COLD AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD HELP PUSH SOME OF THE STRONG 45-60KT H8 LLJ MOMENTUM TO THE
SFC. AS SUCH, CURRENTLY EXPECTING WIDESPREAD 30 TO 40 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA/FAR WESTERN IOWA. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CURRENT HIGH WIND
WARNING WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12Z THURSDAY TO 00Z FRIDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY ENCOMPASSES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE SAME
TIMEFRAME WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH ARE ANTICIPATED.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS HOW A FEW CAMS HAVE LINGERING PRECIP FROM
THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE STRONG SFC LOW WRAPPING AROUND INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A FEW JOULES
OF CAPE ACROSS THESE AREAS, AND WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S, CURRENTLY EXPECTING
SNOW TO BE THE PRIMARY PTYPE WITH THESE WEAK CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THE
STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES IN AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE THESE SHOWERS, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SNOW SQUALLS.
RIGHT NOW, CURRENTLY HAVE A 15 TO 20% CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS THURSDAY (MID 30S TO NEAR 40F) WILL OCCUR LARGELY IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH LINGERING GUSTINESS WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z OR 04Z.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH MOST SEEING LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20F.
LONG TERM
/FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS
NORTHEAST BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS FAR WESTERN IOWA
AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED, WHILE WINDS BECOME BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH. LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WE'LL SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH, BUT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THE H5 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GUIDANCE SHOWS A FEW WAVES
RIDING THIS FLOW THAT PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT A STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH IN THE VICINITY SHOULD HELP
SUPPRESS ANY MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. IT'S WORTH NOTING
THAT A SMALL NUMBER OF MEMBERS FROM THE GEFS AND EPS TRY TO
DEVELOP A BAND OF PRECIP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, NBM DETERMINISTIC REMAINS DRY FOR THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S, WHILE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
STRONG WINDS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH CURRENT GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS
EXPECTED TO PICK UP INTO THE 40-55 KT RANGE ON THURSDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AT OFK WITH 50 KT WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL, BUT
WITH STRONGER SURFACE GUSTS MOVING IN, THAT THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH. AS THE WINDS SHIFT, COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE ALSO
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL FROM 12 TO 18Z, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON IF IT DEVELOPS (15-20% CHANCE). IF IT
DOES, COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY, DEPENDING HOW
HEAVY IT IS. OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THURSDAY EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-
012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065-066-078-088.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ067-068-
089>093.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ043-
055.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ056-069-
079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CA
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