966
FXUS63 KOAX 031724
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1124 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LATE IN THE WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT A GLAZE OF ICE AND DUSTING OF SNOW
TO SOME LOCATIONS FRIDAY HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN MO EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS PRESENT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THIS MORNING BEFORE DECREASING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. THE CLOUD BREAKS WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
OUR AREA TO MID TO UPPER 30S IN OUR SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES.
A LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY, IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE LOW. THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL INDUCE STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL DRAW
A WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER IMPULSE
PASSING TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH BOTH SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TO OUR NORTHEAST. UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY:
THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING THE PROGRESSION OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT, MID-LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE MODELS DIFFER ON SPECIFIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE TROUGH,
WHICH LEADS TO VARIABILITY IN THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM. NONETHELESS, IT DOES APPEAR THAT
WE WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
A DECK OF STRATUS AT FL006 HAS BUILT INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING BRINGING A HANDFUL OF HOURS OF IFR AND
LIFR CIGS TO MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SWATH IS SLOWLY MOVING FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO
CLEAR KOFK BY 1PM AND KLNK AND KOMA BY 2PM.
OTHERWISE EXPECT LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY BY
SUNSET, PICKING UP SPEED AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE.
HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CIGS AND FOG TO KOFK OVERNIGHT WITH IFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY FORECAST.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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