914
FXUS63 KOAX 040509
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1109 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER SUNDAY WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LATE IN THE WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA, COLDEST
WHERE THE FRESH SNOW/SLEET FELL ON FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE
HUNG OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH SOME OVER LINCOLN
AND LANCASTER COUNTY AS OF 1PM WHERE A WEAK BOUNDARY LIES. THE
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTRY MIX LAST NIGHT IS PUSHING
OUT OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS H5 RIDGING BUILDS JUST WEST OF HERE.
WINDS ARE LIGHT, HAVING FLIPPED FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THEY'LL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND
PICK UP SPEED. THIS WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE PROGGED
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY CONFIDENT IN
VISIBILITIES FALLING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WITH AREAL EXTENT OF FOG PEAKING AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE
COLUMBUS/ALBION/NORFOLK AREAS. EXPECT VISIBILITY FALL TO BELOW
ONE MILE AT TIMES (HREF PROBABILITIES 40-50%). WITH SOUTHERLY
WIND SPEEDS NEAR 10-20 MPH BY SUNRISE, EXPECT THE FOG TO BE ON
THE RETREAT BY 6AM.
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GAIN SPEED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
SUNDAY, PEAKING WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 30MPH BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE TEMPS TO CLIMB; HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM MID-40S EAST TO MID-50S WEST.
WORK WEEK
MID-CONUS RIDGING BREAKS DOWN INTO ZONAL FLOW BY MONDAY WITH TWO
WEAK MID- LEVEL IMPULSES SWEEP THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW.
MONDAY'S WAVE PASSES DIRECTLY THROUGH THE AREA, BUT REMAINS
DRY. TUESDAY'S PASSES TOO FAR TO THE NORTH TO BRING PRECIP HERE.
TEMPS HIT THEIR ZENITH ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 MIXING IN. STANDING
RECORDS ARE IN THE MID-60S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FALLS CITY'S 63
SET IN 2017.
THURSDAY (20%) AND FRIDAY (40%) BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH AN
AMPLIFIED TROF PROGGED TO BE IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL POINT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TOWARD THE CORN
BELT. GOING TEMPERATURE FORECASTS KEEP P-TYPES DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE EJECTING WAVES. RAIN/SNOW/WINTRY MIX ARE ALL ON
THE TABLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING OVER
KOFK. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SPEED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS WHICH SHOULD
HELP DISSIPATE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. GIVEN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
PUSHES FOG AND LOW CEILINGS OUT OF AREA BY 10Z, HAVE ADJUSTED
ARRIVAL OF VFR CONDITIONS TO 10Z AT TERMINAL. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPO GROUP AT KOMA TO INCLUDE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
08Z WHILE KEEPING CEILINGS IN VFR RANGE GIVEN LATEST MODEL
TRENDS. FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY AT KLNK.
OTHERWISE, STILL EXPECTING SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 12Z AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO AFFECT THE THREE TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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