738
FXUS63 KOAX 040832
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
232 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION APPEARS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY, IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH SD.
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL NE INTO SOUTHWEST IA. THE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO THIN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WE'LL SEE SOME PASSING
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TO UPPER 40S IN SOUTHWEST IA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR MORE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
ADDITIONAL, WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO PROGRESS NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR TO THE
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA WITH THE CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY
WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
BOTH THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA INDICATE A
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN THE CONFIGURATION OF THAT TROUGH, WHICH LEADS TO VARIABILITY
IN THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE VARIOUS EPS-
BASED SYSTEMS INDICATE A SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW WHEN COMPARED TO THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE.
THAT MORE NORTHERN TRACK WOULD RESULT IN GREATER MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR OUR AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, SO WE WILL BE
MONITORING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM FOR SNOWFALL POTENTIAL, WHICH
WOULD POTENTIALLY COINCIDE WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING OVER
KOFK. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SPEED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS WHICH SHOULD
HELP DISSIPATE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. GIVEN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
PUSHES FOG AND LOW CEILINGS OUT OF AREA BY 10Z, HAVE ADJUSTED
ARRIVAL OF VFR CONDITIONS TO 10Z AT TERMINAL. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPO GROUP AT KOMA TO INCLUDE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
08Z WHILE KEEPING CEILINGS IN VFR RANGE GIVEN LATEST MODEL
TRENDS. FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY AT KLNK.
OTHERWISE, STILL EXPECTING SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 12Z AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO AFFECT THE THREE TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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