717
FXUS63 KOAX 041109
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
509 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION APPEARS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY, IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH SD.
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE, RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL NE INTO SOUTHWEST IA. THE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO THIN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WE'LL SEE SOME PASSING
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TO UPPER 40S IN SOUTHWEST IA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR MORE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
ADDITIONAL, WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO PROGRESS NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR TO THE
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA WITH THE CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY
WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
BOTH THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA INDICATE A
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN THE CONFIGURATION OF THAT TROUGH, WHICH LEADS TO VARIABILITY
IN THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE VARIOUS EPS-
BASED SYSTEMS INDICATE A SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW WHEN COMPARED TO THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE.
THAT MORE NORTHERN TRACK WOULD RESULT IN GREATER MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR OUR AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, SO WE WILL BE
MONITORING THIS WEATHER SYSTEM FOR SNOWFALL POTENTIAL, WHICH
WOULD POTENTIALLY COINCIDE WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 11Z SHOWS LIFR CLOUDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH OF KOFK WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO VFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KOMA AND KLNK WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE FL180 THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG FORMATION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD; HOWEVER, NO
MENTION WILL BE MADE IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
SOUTH WINDS TO STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN
DIMINISH TO BELOW 12 KT THIS EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...MEAD
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