789
FXUS63 KOAX 050451
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1051 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION APPEARS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
AFTER ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY FOG, SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CREEP
INTO THE 50S ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA WHERE THE SUN
FIRST POKED THROUGH THE SKY COVER.
TONIGHT
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EXPECT TO SEE MORE PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, THIS TIME FOCUSED MOSTLY IN IOWA.
DENSE FOG IS LIKELIEST BEYOND OUR COVERAGE AREA, BUT PATCHY
MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF OMAHA. HREF PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY FALLING
BELOW 1 MILE RANGE FROM 10-40% ACROSS WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORKWEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OFFSET BY AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER; EXPECT MORE 50S. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT PUTS UP ANOTHER ROAD BLOCK FOR WARMING TEMPS.
NO SUCH BARRIERS ARE APPARENT IN WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST. SUNSHINE
AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PEAK IN THE
MID-50S TO LOWER 60S. CURRENT FORECAST HAS MAX TEMPS FALLING
2-10 DEGREES SHY OF STANDING RECORDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A CLOSED-LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CONUS BY MID-DAY THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW REMAIN BETWEEN THE THREE
PRIMARY FORECAST SYSTEMS (EC/GFS/GEM). THE EURO IS FARTHER
NORTH, BUT THE NORTH AMERICAN MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY ACQUIESCED
TO A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE WITH TODAY'S 12Z RUNS.
REGARDLESS, THURSDAY'S CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW HAVE GROWN
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. FWIW, THE NBM SUGGESTS A 10-20% CHANCE
OF MORE THAN 3" OF SNOW FOR MOST OF THE CWA. THIS MAY BE ONE OF
THOSE SYSTEMS WHERE SNOW TOTALS ARE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES
WITH A RAIN/SNOW LINE BRINGING DISPARATE IMPACTS TO NEIGHBORING
COUNTIES. COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEEPENING SYSTEM
AS IT DEPARTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT UNDER 12 KTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH.
LATEST HIRES MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FOG POTENTIAL AT KOMA AND
KLNK WITH AROUND A 30% CHANCE FOR FORMATION. HAVE LEFT LOW
CEILINGS BUT IN VFR RANGE AFTER 13Z TO AROUND 16/17Z AT THOSE
TWO RESPECTIVE TERMINALS. IF FOG MANAGES TO DEVELOP, EXPECT
POTENTIAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR.
WINDS UNDER 12 KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE,
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
ONCE AGAIN HINTING THAT FOG COULD REDEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AFTER 02Z AT KOMA (30-50% CHANCE).
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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