292
FXUS63 KOAX 050849
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
249 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGH FIRE DANGER IN PARTS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- INCREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION APPEARS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
A WEAK FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS OBSERVED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE LIGHT
WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK,
MAINLY ALONG RIVER VALLEYS. LATER TODAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE MID-MO
VALLEY, IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE LOW AND FRONT/WIND SHIFT. THE
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AHEAD OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA. WE'LL SEE ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
CLOUDS CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS SUPPORTING PATCHY DENSE
FOG, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MO RIVER.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY:
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL REMAINING TO THE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE,
THE MAIN STORY IS THE CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S TUESDAY
AND MID 50S TO LOW 60S WEDNESDAY. NO RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST; HOWEVER, THE WARMTH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE 00Z MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN THE
STRUCTURE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE TRACK OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE INCREASING POPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PEAK PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (40-50%) FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AT THAT TIME
WITH THE WPC INDICATING A 10-30% CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL WINTER
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FORECAST, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS AT THAT TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
THURSDAY FALLING INTO THE 30S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT
WARMUP IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT UNDER 12 KTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH.
LATEST HIRES MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FOG POTENTIAL AT KOMA AND
KLNK WITH AROUND A 30% CHANCE FOR FORMATION. HAVE LEFT LOW
CEILINGS BUT IN VFR RANGE AFTER 13Z TO AROUND 16/17Z AT THOSE
TWO RESPECTIVE TERMINALS. IF FOG MANAGES TO DEVELOP, EXPECT
POTENTIAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO OCCUR.
WINDS UNDER 12 KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE,
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
ONCE AGAIN HINTING THAT FOG COULD REDEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AFTER 02Z AT KOMA (30-50% CHANCE).
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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