036
FXUS63 KOAX 051934
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
134 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY (40-60%), WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
CALM AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE BROKEN CLOUD COVER, SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING FROM CO/WY INTO WESTERN NE
WILL PUSH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH THE
MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT BEING A SHIFT IN SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY. A BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TONIGHT.
ANOTHER CONSIDERATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG, MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE WITH STRONGER WINDS JUST
ABOVE, WHICH COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY, LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. HOWEVER, THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOG WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE, AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK UP,
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S, ROUGHLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY JANUARY.
UNSEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S, FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WHILE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, RECORD HIGHS FOR BOTH MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST A FEW DEGREES OUT OF
REACH ON BOTH DAYS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 30
PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER 20
MPH, LIMITING THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
A NOTABLE PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COOLER AIRMASS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE
NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
MILD, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST. THURSDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES VALUES, WHICH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
MID 30S. RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE DATE ARE 37 AT
OMAHA, 35 AT LINCOLN, AND 32 AT NORFOLK. HOWEVER, CAA ARRIVING LATE
THURSDAY COULD LIMIT OR COMPLETELY NEGATE THE RECORD THREAT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. POPS CURRENTLY PEAK AT 40-60% LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA,
WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN TIMING, LOCATION AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AMONG LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS
DRIVEN BY MULTIPLE LOBES OF VORTICITY THAT EVENTUALLY PHASE
TOGETHER, WITH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLING THIS EVOLUTION
DIFFERENTLY. GEFS MEMBERS TEND TO KEEP THE STRONGEST QPF SIGNAL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH FORCING MOVING OUT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY,
WHILE EPS/EPS-AIFS GUIDANCE TRENDS FARTHER NORTH AND FAVORS A
GREATER SNOW POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.
EVEN SO, CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES REMAIN REGARDING THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF ANY ACCUMULATION SNOW WITHIN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. CURRENT
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS INDICATES AT 20-40% PROBABILITY OF
AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW, WHILE THE EPS/EPS-AIFS SUGGEST A 30-50%
PROBABILITY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL TREND BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS, WITH HIGH GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CALM SOUTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST UPPER-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE BEFORE A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THIS
EVENING VEERS WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY. GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY AT KOFK.
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY,
PRIMARILY AFFECTING KOMA. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (80%) THAT
FOG WILL IMPACT KOMA, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT OF
IMPACTS. AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH BRIEF
DIPS TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOG WILL
IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
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