093
FXUS63 KOAX 060903
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
303 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
(40-60%). SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY:
AS OF 3 AM, DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED OVER FAR EASTERN NE AND
WESTERN IA, AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA.
VISIBILITIES ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING WEST OF A WAYNE TO FREMONT TO
LINCOLN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE FOG
COULD LINGER THROUGH 9 OR 10 AM IN SOUTHWEST IA. SO, THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN THOSE AREAS. A FEW
CLOUDS COULD LINGER TODAY IN NORTHEAST NE AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST IA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT TO SUPPORT HIGH FIRE
DANGER IN MUCH OF EASTERN NE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PROGRESSING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (NOW OFF THE CA COAST) FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THAT EVENING.
LARGER DISPARITIES EXIST IN THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THAT FEATURE TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AS SUCH, HIGHEST POPS THURSDAY (40-60%) ARE
IN SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA, DECREASING WITH NORTHWARD
EXTENT ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WILL
SUPPORT ALL RAIN, WHICH COULD TRANSITION TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX OR
ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IF SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT CAN
PERSIST.
ON FRIDAY, THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A DEEP, CLOSED CIRCULATION EVENTUALLY
FORMING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST OR GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE (30-40% POPS) WITH
THAT SYSTEM FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE
OF SNOW OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX. LATEST EPS, GEFS, AND NBM DATA
INDICATE A 20-50% CHANCE OF AN INCH OR MORE SNOW FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN
SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS (SLIPPERY ROADS), BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL CHANGES,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY:
A QUICK TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. CONTINUED
WARMING IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT KOFK AND KLNK WHERE FOG HAS
MANAGED TO PUSHED FARTHEST EAST, WHILE AT KOMA, LIFR CONDITIONS
HAVE DEVELOPED. FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF KOFK WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
MINUTES AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND AN APPROACHING
FRONT, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP AT KLNK TO ADDRESS MVFR FOG POTENTIAL WHICH SHOULD CLEAR
WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS OR SO ONCE THE FRONT REACHES THE
TERMINAL. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LONGEST AT KOMA, WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 09Z. COULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF LLWS
AT KOFK AND KLNK AS THE WIND SHIFT OCCURS EARLY THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER FOG
CLEARS AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS UNDER 12 KTS, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ034-044-
045-051>053-066>068-089>093.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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