664
FXUS63 KOAX 070456
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1056 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
(40-60%). SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE, BUT LOOKS TO BE
LESS THAN AN INCH AS OF NOW FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO THE 40S AND 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF WHILE DEEPER LOW SWIRLS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. WARMTH IS THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH
HIGHS OUT-PERFORMING MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON BY
PUSHING INTO THE LOW-TO-UPPER 50S WITH THE GENTLE SLOPE FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS TO GIVE THAT EXTRA ADIABATIC NUDGE TO THE TEMPERATURES.
JOINING THE WARMTH ARE GENERALLY DECREASING DEWPOINTS, BROUGHT
IN BY THOSE WESTERLIES TO MAKE OUR FOGGY MORNING MUCH HARDER TO
REPEAT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES FALL TO A SIMILAR
RANGE TONIGHT, WITH ABOUT 5 DEGREE LOWER DEWPOINTS THAT WILL
MAKE WIDESPREAD FOG UNLIKELY ASIDE FROM THE COOLEST POINTS IN
THE BOTTOMS OF RIVER AND CREEK VALLEYS WHERE COLD AIR IS ABLE TO
DRAIN MOST EFFICIENTLY. TEMPERATURES REBOUND TOMORROW AS WINDS
SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AND A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S WITH SLIGHTLY GUSTIER WINDS THAT WILL RANGE IN THE 25 TO 35
MPH RANGE (SUPPORTED BY MANY OF THE CAMS, INCLUDING THE
RAP/HRRR). THE WARMTH TO THE WEST WILL BE BOLSTERED BY A
DEEPENING SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE CALIFORNIA COAST LOW THAT
IS POISED TO BRING A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE EASTERN EDGE OF A BROAD TROUGH WILL ARRIVE
TO THE CENTRAL CONUS, CARRYING WITH IT A COMPACT SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL TRIGGER LEE CYCLOGENESIS, WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
EJECT FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST IOWA. THE RESIDUAL WARMTH PRESENT WHEN THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES WILL KEEP THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION AS RAIN, WITH
THIS BATCH OF MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THAT WE SHOULD HAVE
SOME SNOW FILLING IN ON THE BACKSIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. AS THE TRANSITION HAPPENS, THE LOWEST 1
KM WILL HAVE A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER THAT WILL HOVER NEAR
FREEZING TO EAT AWAY AT ANY INITIAL SNOW THAT TRIES TO FALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY
INDICATE, WITH SOME SNOW FALLING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-30S
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AS OF NOW, SNOW IS ONLY POSSIBLE
WITH THE LINGERING DEFORMATION BAND LATE THURSDAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MUCH OF THAT MELTING BEFORE ACTUALLY
STICKING. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY DO REBOUND INTO THE 30S, WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER-MAKER ARRIVING WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE BROAD
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS OF NOW, THIS SNOW HAS A
LOWER CHANCE OF LANDING, OWING PRIMARILY TO THE LOWER MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS. INITIAL SOUNDINGS
DO INDICATE THAT IF IT DOES PAN OUT, IT WILL FALL PRIMARILY AS
SNOW WITH DECREASING TEMPERATURES AND A LACK OF ANY INVERSIONS
ALOFT TO BRING IN MIXED PRECIPITATION. THIS SNOW COULD OVERLAP
SLIGHTLY WITH WINDS THAT QUICKLY RAMP UP OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY FROM THE DEEPENING LOW TO THE EAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST FILLING IN BEHIND IT. GUSTS COULD REACH 35 TO 45 MPH OR
MORE, BUT SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY AREAS OF DRAMATIC BLOWING
SNOW UNLESS WE GET CONSIDERABLY MORE SNOW THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST (GENERALLY LESS THAN A TRACE).
WITH THE CHANCES FOR THE LIGHT SNOW IN THE REAR-VIEW MIRROR,
ENSEMBLES SHOW HIGH 500 MB ANOMALIES SPREADING FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION, WITH HIGHS AS DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND 50S (WELL-ABOVE NORMAL) RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF CYCLE AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER. KOFK MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF LLWS BY 11Z LASTING THROUGH 16Z. THEREAFTER, EXPECT
THE LIGHT WINDS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS TO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 18 TO 25 KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON,
BECOMING LIGHT UNDER 12 KTS FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY 00Z.
HIGH BASED CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY FILL IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN TAF
PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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