281
FXUS63 KOAX 070937
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
337 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES (70-100% POPS) THURSDAY. STORM-TOTAL
SNOW RANGING FROM A TRACE TO UPWARDS OF 1.0-1.5" WITH MINOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE (20-30%).
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO THE 40S AND 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
TODAY:
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND A WESTERLY, DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT
CONTRIBUTED TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AGAIN TODAY.
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF LEE-SIDE CIRRUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE BULK OF
THOSE CLOUDS REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. AS SUCH, THIS
FORECAST UPDATE HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE,
INDICATING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE RECORD AT
LINCOLN (65/2003) WILL BE WITHIN REACH. THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH
COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT WILL
RESULT IN HIGH FIRE DANGER AT MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A
SMALL AREA OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER APPEARS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS
OF BUTLER, SEWARD, SALINE, AND LANCASTER COUNTIES.
CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD (30S TO
AROUND 40), ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA WHERE
THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. THAT
HAS LED INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREAWIDE WITH MAXIMUM
POPS OF 70-100% IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IN SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST
IA.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE DEFORMATION AXIS ATTENDANT TO THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN COOLING
TEMPERATURES WOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW.
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, A SUBTROPICAL-BRANCH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO KS/OK/TX WITH THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD GLANCING AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA (30-50% POPS). WHILE THE
FORECAST WILL INDICATE HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S, THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE THEY WILL STAY IN THE 30S WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS LIGHT SNOW.
BY SATURDAY, A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE MID-MO VALLEY, CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEEPENING OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO THE JET STREAK MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A THIRD ROUND OF
MORE SHOWERY LIGHT SNOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK DESTABILIZATION
COINCIDENT WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH. ANY SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THAT ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE SNOW WITH CONSIDERABLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY.
IN REGARD TO STORM-TOTAL SNOW, THE EPS INDICATES A 30-50%
CHANCE OF 1"+ WITH GENERALLY LOWER PROBABILITIES INDICATED BY
THE NBM, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE. THE FORECAST THROUGH 6 AM
SATURDAY WILL INDICATE A MOST-REASONABLE RANGE FROM A TRACE TO
UPWARDS OF 1.0-1.5". MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
SLIPPERY ROADS. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS COULD BE A CONCERN
SATURDAY WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP (AS MENTIONED
ABOVE).
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 0.5-0.75" STORM-TOTAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW (MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL CONTINUE EAST OF
THE MS VALLEY SUNDAY WITH UPSTREAM HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE
MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO MID-MS VALLEY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S SUNDAY ARE
FORECAST TO WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF CYCLE AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER. KOFK MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF LLWS BY 11Z LASTING THROUGH 16Z. THEREAFTER, EXPECT
THE LIGHT WINDS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS TO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 18 TO 25 KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON,
BECOMING LIGHT UNDER 12 KTS FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY 00Z.
HIGH BASED CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY FILL IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN TAF
PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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