510
FXUS63 KOAX 072313
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
513 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES (70-100% POPS) THURSDAY. STORM-TOTAL
SNOW RANGING FROM A TRACE TO UPWARDS OF 1.0" WITH MINOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE (20-30%).
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO THE 40S AND 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
TODAY:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE MAKINGS OF A TROUGH BEGINNING TO
DEEPEN. THOSE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WILL BE
POISED TO FORM THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD'S WEATHER, WITH
THE BAJA/CALIFORNIA LOW DEEPENING FIRST AND WORKING TO PULL THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE SOUTH AND THEN EAST TO SERVE AS THE BACK
END OF A BROAD TROUGH. LOOKING LOCALLY, WARMTH AND QUIET
CONDITIONS ARE THE MESSAGE AS A WEAK THERMAL RIDGE IS PROPPED UP
BY THE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED WELL PAST
EVEN THE WARMEST GUIDANCE AIDED BY THIS AND GENTLE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, PUSHING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S, A WELCOME SET OF
CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE WHEN OUR NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE CLOSER TO 33-35 DEGREES. THE WARMTH HAS RESULTED IN RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20S AND TEENS WHERE IT HAS REACHED OVER
60 DEGREES, AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER HAS DEVELOPED AS A
RESULT. TO THE SOUTHWEST, HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AND WILL ONLY INCREASE AND SPREAD TO THE
NORTHEAST, HELPING TO HELP INSULATE TO A CERTAIN EXTENT SOME OF
THE WARMTH WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO GENERATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THAT IN MIND, WE'VE LEANED INTO A SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW
TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE WINDS OF CHANGE ARRIVING
TOMORROW TO BRING MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AND SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CALI/BAJA LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE COURSE
OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN STRIDE WITH THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM, LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH
THAT LOW TRACKING TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THEN TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL
IOWA, PUSHING AHEAD OF IT WARM AIR ADCECTION-DRIVEN RAINFALL AND
DRAGGING A DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. LATEST RUNS OF
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
COME AS RAIN, WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA FOR THERE TO BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MODERATE RAIN (WITH LIGHT RAIN NUDGING INTO THE
AREA AS EARLY AS 6 AM). BY THE TIME THAT 6 PM ROLLS AROUND, COLDER
AIR WILL BEGIN FILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BEGIN TO TRY AND
WORK SOME SNOWFALL INTO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION BAND.
WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING, THAT LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW (~1000 FT) AND
STRONG LIFT THAT INTERSECTS WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL
OCCUR, SENDING DOWN SNOWFALL INTO THAT WARMER SHALLOW LAYER.
FORTUNATELY, THAT SNOW SHOULD LARGELY MELT BEFORE IT IS ABLE TO PILE
UP, BUT STILL COULD PROVIDE SLICKNESS, ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES. MORE IMPORTANTLY, WHAT DOESN'T STICK WITH THE INITIAL
SNOWFALL MAY END UP FREEZING (ALONG WITH ANY LEFTOVER WET SURFACES)
TO MAKE FOR A SLICK MORNING COMMUTE FRIDAY AS WE DIP INTO SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. PLAN ON EXTRA TIME FOR YOUR COMMUTE AND TAKE
IT EASY, ESPECIALLY WITH BLACK ICE BEING SOMETIMES HARD TO SEE THAN
THE SLICKNESS FROM SNOW.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, WE'LL HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING FROM THE
INITIAL SYSTEM IN THE REAR-VIEW MIRROR AND BE ONLY LEFT WITH
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW THAT QUICKLY DIMINISHES IN THE MORNING.
ANOTHER QUICK-HITTING WAVE WILL BE ON ITS HEELS WITH GLANCE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH A DUSTING AS IT WITH ITS FARTHER SOUTH
DISPLACEMENT (CHANCES LASTING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING).
BY SATURDAY, A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SET UP
BETWEEN THE DEEP SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING
IN ITS TRACKS TO RAMP UP NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL ALSO WORK TO PUMP
COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD. GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
REACH INTO THE 35-40 MPH RANGE, AND MAKE THE HIGHS IN THE 30S FEEL
MORE LIKE THE 20S. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE TO
WELL ABOVE IT (NEARLY TO 600 MB) WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND PROVIDE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TRAVEL COULD BE IMPACTED IN THESE
SPORADIC AREAS, IF THIS SIGNAL HOLDS. ALL IN ALL, THE TOTAL AMOUNT
OF SNOWFALL FOR THE ACTIVE PERIOD IS A TRACE TO 1 INCH OF SNOW, WITH
MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL THAT WON'T CANCEL ANY PLANS, BUT COULD CAUSE
INCREASED ACCIDENTS ON THE WAY TO THEM.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND:
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK AS RIDGING TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN INTO OUR LOCAL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 SUNDAY WILL PEAK IN THE
40S/50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY JET MAX TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEAKENING AND SIGNALING ANOTHER
WEATHER MAKER WITH COOLER AIR HEADED FOR THE AREA FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 507 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BEGIN WAFFLING
DIRECTION- WISE EARLY TOMORROW AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
BEFORE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FILL IN TO THE NORTH OF THE INCOMING
RAIN. ONCE RAIN DOES START, EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
BEGIN FALLING AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KG
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