236
FXUS63 KOAX 081621
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1021 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN TODAY (70-100% POPS) MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW IN SOME AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SNOW AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TRACE TO UPWARDS OF AN INCH WITH A
20-30% CHANCE OF MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE (20-30% POPS) FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY COULD LEAD TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE 40S AND 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY, IN
TANDEM WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST KS THROUGH
THE ST. JOSEPH, MO VICINITY TO EASTERN IA BY EVENING. INCREASED
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT A GROWING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD (CURRENTLY OVER KS) THAT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM SOUTH-TO-NORTH THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA,
WHERE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER APPEAR POSSIBLE. THE MATURATION
OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MANIFEST IN THE INTENSIFICATION
OF A TROWAL/DEFORMATION BAND THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL PROLONG
LIGHT-PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
ENDING FROM WEST-TO-EAST TONIGHT.
WHILE THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION
OF THE PRECIPITATION FOOTPRINT TODAY, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR ARE
ON THE WARM END OF THE SPECTRUM WITH ONLY THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE DEFORMATION AXIS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW THIS EVENING. THE
NAM12 AND NAMNEST ARE ON OPPOSITE END WITH A QUICKER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD TRANSITION TO SNOW, LEADING TO A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. THE REST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND 00Z
ENSEMBLE DATA FALL SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THIS FORECAST UPDATE
WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRACE TO UPWARDS OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT.
EVEN IF SNOWFALL REMAINS MINIMAL, WET ROADS COULD BECOME
SLIPPERY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE REGION
WITH LIQUID-EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.1-0.2" IN
NORTHEAST NE TO 0.5-0.75" IN SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 30S TO AROUND 45 IN FAR
SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
20S TO LOW 30S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
THE 00Z MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR RUNS IN INDICATING
THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL LARGELY REMAIN TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FORECAST UPDATE
WILL INDICATE 20-30% POPS IN SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
COOLER THAN THOSE ON THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S.
THE DEEPENING OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY
SATURDAY WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION, CARRIED ALONG BY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH.
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY YIELD
WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON,
CAPABLE OF BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW AND SOME TRAVEL
IMPACT DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL TEMPORARILY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MS
VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL
SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH READINGS COOLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL,
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO IFR AT KOMA AND KLNK AND
MVFR AT KOFK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY AT KOMA AND KLNK THIS AFTERNOON,
BRINGING ON AND OFF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS (MVFR TO IFR). A
NORTH TO SOUTH TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW, OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX, IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING SNOW IS AT KOFK AND KOMA, WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT KLNK. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
OF 20-25 KTS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE GRADUALLY CALMING
UNDER 12 KTS FRIDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...WOOD
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