337
FXUS63 KOAX 081939
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
139 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A
TRACE TO AROUND AN INCH.
- A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW EXISTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS
REDUCING VISIBILITY POSSIBLE FRIDAY (20% CHANCE).
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
THE 40S AND 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA INTO WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW, A BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION (POPS 80-100%). A TROWAL AND
ATTENDANT DEFORMATION ZONE ARE SUPPORTING POCKETS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA, THOUGH THIS CHANCE WILL
DIMINISH STEADILY THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 0.75-1.00"
RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE & SOUTHWEST IA, WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING
NORTH AND WEST OF THIS CORRIDOR. THE PRIMARY CONCERN LATER THIS
EVENING WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH AND PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 ARE MOST LIKELY (60-80%
CHANCE, PER THE HREF) TO EXPERIENCE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX OR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW PRIOR TO THE END OF PRECIPITATION, WITH A
TRACE TO AROUND ONE INCH POSSIBLE. A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS COULD
EXCEED ONE INCH SHOULD TEMPERATURES FALL MORE RAPIDLY THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME REMAINS
LOW (ABOUT 20% CHANCE).
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FULLY EXIT THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT TO 2
AM, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 20S. ATTENTION WILL THEN
TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO FREEZE ON UNTREATED
ROADS AND SIDEWALKS, LEADING TO SLICK SPOTS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT
ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX
CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOW-END POPS IN THE 15-30% RANGE. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN LIMITED QPF (UNDER <0.05").
EVEN SO, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY
EVENING, WHICH MAY RESULT IN REFREEZING OF ANY MOISTURE
REMAINING ON SURFACES FROM DAYTIME MELTING.
SATURDAY...
ON SATURDAY, A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL LOW LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS AND INTRODUCE THE NEXT ROUND
OF LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID-30S EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. THESE STRONGER WINDS
WILL PROMOTE RAPID CAA THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY, LEADING
TO FALLING TEMPERATURES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW, MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES
WITHIN THE DGZ COMBINED WITH INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, BRIEF BURSTS OF SNOW AND LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY DURING
HEAVIER SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY, POPS
REMAIN CAPPED AROUND 20% AT THIS TIME, THOUGH THIS SCENARIOS BEARS
MONITORING FOR THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
OVERNIGHT LOW SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE COLDEST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS. THE BRIEF
SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES REESTABLISHED, ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
30S TO MID 40S, FOLLOWED BY A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMUP ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
THE WARMER PATTERN WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, WITH POPS CURRENTLY IN
THE 20-30% RANGE. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS IN LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
REGARDING BOTH TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THIS PERIOD. BY
WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMS, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL,
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO IFR AT KOMA AND KLNK AND
MVFR AT KOFK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY AT KOMA AND KLNK THIS AFTERNOON,
BRINGING ON AND OFF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS (MVFR TO IFR). A
NORTH TO SOUTH TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW, OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX, IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING SNOW IS AT KOFK AND KOMA, WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT KLNK. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
OF 20-25 KTS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BEFORE GRADUALLY CALMING
UNDER 12 KTS FRIDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
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