046
FXUS63 KOAX 251106
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
506 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED COLD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -25
MONDAY MORNING.
- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE BEING
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY (20-30%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
THE LAST LINGERING DREGS OF FALLING SNOW SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT, LEAVING A SWATH OF CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, AND CLEAR SKIES TO THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
0 OVERNIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON,
BEFORE THE NEXT ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE REGION. WHILE THE
CAMS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES TO SNEAK INTO FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA, MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH SUFFICIENT SATURATION TO PRODUCE SNOW. WHILE A COUPLE
OF FLAKES MAY REACH THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON, NO NOTABLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET -5 TO -10 SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS
DIPPING AS LOW AS -15 TO -25 BY MONDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WHILE
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS BORDERLINE ON WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE
-20S OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, RECENT SNOWFALL
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LIKELY ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT, LEADING COLDER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND...
WARMING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE
20S AND LOW 30S MONDAY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH MORNING LOWS FALLING
INTO THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE 0. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DIP A FEW DEGREES, INTO THE 20S, BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHORTWAVES TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS. LREF AND NBM PROBS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST A GLANCING BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW WOULD BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING (10-15%), AND THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY (20-40%).
CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THESE WAVES WOULD
LIKELY BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 452 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
MVFR CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE AREA BETWEEN 18-00Z THIS AFTERNOON.
THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A FEW FLURRIES, UNDER THESE LOWER
CLOUDS, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, IF THEY DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THOUGH OCCASIONALLY
VARIABLE THIS MORNING, WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AT AROUND 5 TO 15 KTS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-
078-088>093.
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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