364
FXUS63 KOAX 252022
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
222 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.
- DANGEROUS COLD LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS -20 TO -25. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT.
- WARMER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
- A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW (15-20%) ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBTLE, UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
ADVANCING THROUGH NORTHEAST NE AS OF 2 PM. THAT FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE POST-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. INCREASING LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS (PER OBSERVATIONS), SO A MENTION HAS BEEN INCLUDED
IN NORTHEAST NE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE -5 TO -10 DEGREE RANGE, WHICH WHEN
COUPLED WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH, WILL YIELD MINIMUM WIND CHILLS OF
-20 TO -25. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT UNTIL 9
AM MONDAY.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER-MS VALLEY
MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY, SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ADVECT
A WARMER, LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK, MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT,
WHICH ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THE
MODELS INDICATE A SWATH OF LIGHT QPF GLANCING WESTERN IA, SO LOW
POPS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ADDED THERE. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOLER TUESDAY (I.E., HIGHS IN THE 20S) WITH READINGS
WARMING BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
CONSENSUS OF LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD IN THE
LOCATION AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED QPF FOOTPRINT.
THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF LOW POPS (15-20%) FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S BY
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
A WEAK FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SWITCHING TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE TO 12-14 KT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KOFK AND KLNK. CURRENT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SD AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON (AROUND FL025) WITH THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS BEING AT
KOFK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW FLURRIES MAY
ALSO OCCUR AT THAT TIME.
CLOUDS AND WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE WIND DIRECTION
CHANGING TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ030-034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-031>033.
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...MEAD
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