325
FXUS63 KOAX 280525
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1125 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER, BUT STILL BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOW
30S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK IN FRIDAY WITH LOWS DROPPING
BELOW ZERO AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.
- SNOW CHANCES (30-50%) THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT (30-50%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH US UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS MESSY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES PUSHES INTO THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST
LEADING TO ENHANCEMENT IN THE POLAR JET STREAK PUSHING SOUTH
INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. IT'S ULTIMATELY THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THAT FINALLY PUSHES THE TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A WEAK RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS ALLOWS FOR WEAK WARM-AIR ADVECTION TO
CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALLOWED
TO MOVE IN WITH THE EXIT OF THE BROAD TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THIS
DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS AND TRACKS
IT EASTWARD ALONG ACROSS OKLAHOMA/KANSAS/MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS WEAK AND DOESN'T HOLD TOGETHER TOO LONG, BUT IT WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA FROM THE
GULF. A FRONTOGENESIS BAND IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
AREA NORTH OF THE LOW BRINGING 30-50% CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE 20S, ANYTHING THAT FALLS SHOULD JUST FALL AS SNOW.
AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW LOOK LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH, BUT
WE COULD SEE A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.
GOING INTO FRIDAY A STRONGER TROUGH PIVOTS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK DOWN NEAR ZERO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE TEENS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS
FALL EVEN FURTHER INTO THE -2 TO -8 DEGREE RANGE WITH WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO -15 TO -20.
ANOTHER TRAILING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL CHANCES (30-50%)
FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THIS SYSTEM, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
DETAILS.
THE COLD DOESN'T STICK AROUND LONG, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 30S ON SUNDAY AND WE MAY EVEN SEE 40S ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS AT AROUND 5000 AND 10000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OVERNIGHT, MOSTLY SOUTHERLY, BEFORE BECOMING NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 10
KTS. A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME SNOW COULD PUSH INTO
OFK BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IT GETTING
THERE BY THEN IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...CA
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