208
FXUS63 KOAX 290520
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES (40-60%) MOVE IN EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY, WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 1
INCH IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- COLDER AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH FRIDAY
HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND SATURDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS FROM 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES (30-50%) RETURN LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A REBOUND TOWARD NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, WITH RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE, A BRIEF RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR
MODEST DOWNSLOPE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DRIVES A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW.
SNOW CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH
POPS PEAKING AROUND 40-60% THURSDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHERE A
WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 20S ON THURSDAY, ALL PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AS SNOW. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FOR MOST LOCATION
BY MIDDAY, THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL STREAM OF VORTICITY ROTATING INTO
EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA MAY ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA (POPS 15-30%). SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 1 INCH IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
BY FRIDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST, BRIEFLY ELONGATING
THE TROUGH AND GIVING IT A POSITIVE TILT BEFORE IT PIVOTS INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE SLIDES TO OUR EAST, A RENEWED SURGE
OF COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING
FROM THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 13 DEGREES BELOW ZERO,
WITH THE LOWEST VALUES FORECASTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TEENS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
SATURDAY MORNING IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE PERIOD, WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND WIND
CHILLS RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES WILL SUBTLY RECOVER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY REACHING THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AN ADDITIONAL LOBE OF VORTICITY PIVOTING
AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST SPREAD IN THE
TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THE MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS KEEP THE
SYSTEM JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, WHILE THE EPS/EPS-AIFS FAVOR
A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION, BRINGING THE SYSTEM THROUGH WESTERN IOWA
AND FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA. UNDER THE EPS/EPS-AIFS SOLUTION,
PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE OF SNOW RANGE FROM 20-40%, WHILE GEFS
PROBABILITIES REMAIN BELOW 10%. FOR NOW, POPS FAVOR THE SOUTHERLY
TRACK, WITH 30-50% VALUES PAINTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THOUGH
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON SUNDAY,
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION TO START THE WORK
WEEK, WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH ON TUESDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION,
WITH POPS IN THE 15-30% RANGE. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK AND OVERALL IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM,
LIMITING FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE, RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REESTABLISH ITSELF,
BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE RECENT COLD. THE CPC'S 6-10 DAY AND 8-14
DAY OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH
PROBABILITIES RANGING FROM 40-70%.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT
SNOW MOVES INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING AROUND 10Z
AND CONTINUE EASTWARD TO KOMA AND KLNK BY AROUND 12Z. THE
EXPANSE OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION WITH POTENTIAL
FOR THE BAND TO INITIALLY SET UP SOUTH OF KOFK AND KOMA (30%
CHANCE), KEEPING SNOW OUT UNTIL CLOSER TO 15-18Z. IN EITHER
CASE, ONCE SNOW ARRIVES, EXPECT REDUCED VIS AND CIGS. KOFK WILL
SEE CIGS LOWER TO AROUND FL020, WHILE CIGS STAY UP AROUND
FL030-FL035 AT KOMA AND KLNK. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AROUND 18Z, BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LEADING TO BRIEF PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST IMPROVEMENT AT KOMA ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE BAND.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...MCCOY
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