985
FXUS63 KOAX 290804
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
204 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES (20-50%) MOVE IN TODAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY, WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 1
INCH IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- COLDER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND SATURDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES (40-60%) RETURN LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A REBOUND TOWARD NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS USHERED COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION LAST NIGHT,
DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 20S. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
SLIDING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING COULD BRING US JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR FOR SNOW TO OVERCOME BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE. OVERALL SNOWFALL FORECAST AMOUNTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED, WITH A LIGHT DUSTING TO 1 INCH EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1-2" WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE THE MORE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND A WEAK FRONTOGENESIS BAND COULD POTENTIALLY COINCIDE.
SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, MAY
ONLY SEE A FEW FLURRIES. DESPITE THE LOW SNOW AMOUNTS, COMMUTERS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED SURFACES LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A MORE ROBUST TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY, AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING A RESURGENCE OF COLD AIR BACK INTO THE REGION AND GRADUALLY
SHUNT MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTHWEST. EXPECT FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW TO
LINGER OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. TONIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONLY REACH THE TEENS
ABOVE ZERO, WITH 5 TO 15 MPH WINDS MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE +5 TO -
5. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE EVEN COLDER, WITH WIND CHILLS BOTTOMING OUT
AT -10 TO -20.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER INTO THE 20S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DRIFTS COAST-WARD.
ANOTHER CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY (20-40%). THE EPS MEMBERS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA WITH A HANDFUL OF MEMBERS EBBING
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN MORE
UNIMPRESSED WITH THE SNOWFALL COVERAGE. EITHER WAY, AT THE MOMENT IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY AMOUNTS WE DO GET FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BE
LIGHT, AROUND 1" OR LESS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
NOW, WILL MAINTAIN 40-70% POPS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES BRING SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS SNOWFALL EXITS THE AREA.
HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION TO START THE WORK
WEEK, WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO SPAN THE 30S. THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MAY
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION, WITH POPS IN THE 15-
30% RANGE. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
IN THE TRACK AND OVERALL IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM, LIMITING FORECAST
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT
SNOW MOVES INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING AROUND 10Z
AND CONTINUE EASTWARD TO KOMA AND KLNK BY AROUND 12Z. THE
EXPANSE OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION WITH POTENTIAL
FOR THE BAND TO INITIALLY SET UP SOUTH OF KOFK AND KOMA (30%
CHANCE), KEEPING SNOW OUT UNTIL CLOSER TO 15-18Z. IN EITHER
CASE, ONCE SNOW ARRIVES, EXPECT REDUCED VIS AND CIGS. KOFK WILL
SEE CIGS LOWER TO AROUND FL020, WHILE CIGS STAY UP AROUND
FL030-FL035 AT KOMA AND KLNK. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AROUND 18Z, BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LEADING TO BRIEF PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY. EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST IMPROVEMENT AT KOMA ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE BAND.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...MCCOY
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