665
FXUS63 KOAX 292019
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
219 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING (30% CHANCE), MAINLY
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH.
- COLDER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, INCLUDING FRIDAY
HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND SATURDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS FROM 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
- ADDITIONAL SHOW CHANCES (40-70%) RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARM-UP TOWARD NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, WITH RIDGING BUILDING
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE LOW 20S TODAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PIVOTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SPOTTY
FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A DUSTING.
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA, MAINLY AFFECTING THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVERSPREADS A STALLED BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. POPS OF 15-30%
REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT, UNDER ONE-HALF INCH. SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
THROUGH FRIDAY, A TANGLED ASSORTMENT OF DISTURBANCES PIVOTING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ACT TO FURTHER AMPLIFY THE PARENT
TROUGH AND INTRODUCE A POSITIVE TILT. THIS EVOLVING PATTERN WILL
USHER A COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION, WITH FRIDAY MORNING LOWS
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEENS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND
WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 20S. MEANWHILE, AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS, WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE DRAGGING AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY, SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FROM EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WITH POPS IN THE 40-70% RANGE.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND.
EPS/EPS-AIFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE OVERALL AND A
FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
COMPARED TO MOST GEFS MEMBERS. THAT SAID, GEFS GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SNOW AXIS, INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR, THOUGH EXPECTED AMOUNTS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. EPS/EPS-AIFS GUIDANCE INDICATES A 60-90%
PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST ONCE INCH OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA, DECREASING TO AROUND 30% NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER. IN
CONTRAST, THE GEFS PROBABILITIES PEAK AT ONLY 30- 40% IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
CONTINUE TO HINGE ON HOW THESE SOLUTIONS CONVERGE AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES, THOUGH AREAS OF 1-2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND QUICKLY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 30S TO
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER 40S. THIS QUICK WARMUP MAY BRIEFLY ALLOW FOR A
RAIN-SNOW MIX ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEPARTING PRECIPITATION SHIELD
BEFORE PRECIPITATION FULLY ENDS.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK, SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A MID-
LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BRIEFLY DAMPEN THE RIDGE AND BRING LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA, WITH POPS IN THE 15-30% RANGE. LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE, RESULTING IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND
COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDWEEK,
ALLOWING A WARMER AIRMASS TO RETURN. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
INTO THE 40S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOW 50S
TO END THE WORK WEEK. THIS WARMER PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST,
AS BOTH THE CPC 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING AS
LIGHT SNOW PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
INTO THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, TRANSIENT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD (20% CHANCE). CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIME OR
LOCATION OF IMPACTS FROM THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, LEAVING
AMENDMENTS TO BE MADE IF NEEDED. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MINIMAL (UNDER 0.25"). PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNDER ANY SHOWERS THAT PASS THROUGH.
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL PUSH
INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA, LIKELY PUSHING INTO KOFK AND KLNK,
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT KOMA. LIGHT SNOW WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY AT KOFK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW (25% CHANCE) IN THIS OCCURRENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
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