488
FXUS63 KOAX 301117
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
517 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING, MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
NORFOLK TO LINCOLN (20-30% CHANCE). ACCUMULATION UNDER 0.5".
- COLD THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TODAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
- ADDITIONAL SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS (50-80% CHANCE). AMOUNTS MOSTLY IN
THE 0.5 TO 1" RANGE, THOUGH A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE AROUND 2".
- WARMER SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE FRONT STALLED OUT
ACROSS WESTERN NE, RUNNING SOUTHEAST FROM ROUGHLY CHADRON TO TO
MCCOOK. IMMEDIATELY TO ITS EAST, SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS FALLING AS
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS SLIDING THROUGH. SOME OF THIS COULD
CLIP FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY AS ANOTHER BIT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STARTS TO PUSH IN.
HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH WESTWARD
TODAY WITH STRONG, COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN QUICKLY,
SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH, MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM NORFOLK TO LINCOLN.
OTHERWISE, IT'LL BE A COLD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN
THE TEENS.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER TONIGHT, CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK WITH LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING AROUND -5 TO 0 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE LIGHT
WINDS, WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, A FEW SPOTS
IN NORTHEAST NE COULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AS THE
HIGH PUSHES INTO KS SATURDAY MORNING, ALLOWING WIND CHILLS TO
APPROACH -20. THERE WAS SOME CONSIDERATION GIVEN TOWARD A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS, BUT WITH THOSE WIND CHILLS
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT PATCHY AND ONLY A COUPLE HOURS, ELECTED
TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS TREND TODAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SNOW CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME GIVEN THE COLD
HIGH IN PLACE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WE'LL SEE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW START TO PUSH
INTO NORTHEAST NE BY MID-AFTERNOON AND PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT, LARGELY EXITING BY 6 AM SUNDAY. GIVEN THE DRY
AIR AND FAIRLY QUICK MOVEMENT, SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE, MOSTLY 0.5-1", THOUGH A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE AROUND
1-2". IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT 00Z GEFS/EPS "SWITCHED" COMPARED
TO THEIR 12Z RUNS, WITH GEFS NOW FAVORING SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW
(30-60% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1") AND EPS BACKING OFF (LESS THAN
10% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1"). ALL IN ALL, GIVE IT ABOUT A 20-30%
CHANCE FOR 1-2" IN A GIVEN SPOT, HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST NE AND
WEST-CENTRAL IA. FINALLY, GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN OR EVENT SLEET TO VERY BRIEFLY MIX IN ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING PRECIPITATION AS WARM AIR ALOFT
PUSHES IN, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE QUICKLY
COMING TO AN END AS THAT HAPPENS, SO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING
MUCH, IF ANY, ICE-RELATED IMPACTS.
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD QUICKLY MELT AS WARMER WEATHER
IS ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME
50S WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS FAR AS
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK, TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET, THOUGH STILL ONLY A 20%
CHANCE. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
AND SURFACE LOW PASS BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH, WITH ONE OR BOTH
POSSIBLY CLIPPING US WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THEY BECOME MORE PHASED UP TO OUR EAST
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CONUS. THAT SAID, WE'RE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, SO
THERE'S STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE THAT WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH SOME
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AND FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW MAY CLIP OFK
AND LNK THIS MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL MVFR-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTH BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LATTER
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON A DISSIPATING TREND AS THEY MOVE IN, SO
KEPT PREVAILING SCT WITH TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO GUST 18-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY LIGHTEN UP THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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