893
FXUS63 KOAX 301953
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
153 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST, WITH SATURDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS OF
10 TO 23 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- SNOW CHANCES (50-75%) RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
LOCALIZED AREAS MAY APPROACH 2 INCHES.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, WITH RIDGING ADVANCING
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. A VORTICITY MAXIMA SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGH AND REINFORCE COLDER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES HAS ALSO PRODUCED A FEW TRANSIENT
CONVECTIVE ROLL SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS KEPT
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE TEENS TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING,
ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND PROMOTING EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD, A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO 15 TO 23 DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA CLOSER TO SUNRISE. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE.
SNOW CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKING ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SNOW CHANCES WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER THAT WILL INITIALLY NEED TO BE OVERCOME
BEFORE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE SURFACE. POPS INCREASE SATURDAY
EVENING AS WE WORK TO SATURATE THE COLUMN, WITH POPS PEAKING IN THE
50-75% RANGE. THE HIGHEST POPS RESIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
SNOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING. RAPID
WARMING ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAY BRIEFLY ALLOW FOR
A RAIN-SNOW MIX ON THE BACK END OF THE DEPARTING PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. A FEW MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN. HOWEVER, WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING, IMPACTS FROM ANY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN IOWA.
TOTALS DECREASE SOUTHWARD, WITH A ROUGHLY 75% PROBABILITY OF AT
LEAST ONE- HALF INCH ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. STRONG WAA ON
SUNDAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, HELPING
TO KICK START THE MELTING OF THE FRESH SNOW.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK,
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE, NUDGING
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO THE 30S. THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO
INTRODUCE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WITH POPS AROUND 20%. LONG-
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT DISPLACED FROM
THE FORECAST AREA, SUPPORTING THE LOWER POPS. WHILE LIGHT SNOW WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE IF THIS SYSTEM MATERIALIZES,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS AN
AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ADVANCES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND POTENTIALLY THE 50S.
THIS WARMER-THAN-NORMAL PATTERN APPEARS POISED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
FEBRUARY, AS BOTH THE CPC'S 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS CONTINUE
TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS IS PUSHING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE
THIS MORNING. THIS BAND HAS ALREADY REACHED KOMA AND KOFK,
EXPECTED TO APPROACH KLNK BY 30/18-20Z. A BAND OF SPOTTY, TRANSIENT
SNOW SHOWERS IS FOLLOWING THE LOWER CLOUD DECK, BRINGING BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE TERMINALS. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL, QUICK DROP IN VISIBILITY (MVFR TO IFR) WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS (20-30 KT GUSTS).
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW COVERAGE IS LOW, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
POTENTIAL TIMING IS HIGHER. IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY AT KOFK AND
KOMA FROM 30/17-19Z, AND KLNK 30/18-20Z.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND IMPROVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 12-16 KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS BEFORE GRADUALLY CALMING UNDER 12 KTS THIS EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY BACKING TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page