791
FXUS63 KOAX 302317
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
517 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST, WITH SATURDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS OF
10 TO 23 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- SNOW CHANCES (50-75%) RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
LOCALIZED AREAS MAY APPROACH 2 INCHES.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, WITH RIDGING ADVANCING
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. A VORTICITY MAXIMA SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGH AND REINFORCE COLDER AIR
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURES HAS ALSO PRODUCED A FEW TRANSIENT
CONVECTIVE ROLL SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS KEPT
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE TEENS TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING,
ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND PROMOTING EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD, A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO 15 TO 23 DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA CLOSER TO SUNRISE. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE.
SNOW CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKING ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER PUSHES AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SNOW CHANCES WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER THAT WILL INITIALLY NEED TO BE OVERCOME
BEFORE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE SURFACE. POPS INCREASE SATURDAY
EVENING AS WE WORK TO SATURATE THE COLUMN, WITH POPS PEAKING IN THE
50-75% RANGE. THE HIGHEST POPS RESIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
SNOW WILL EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING. RAPID
WARMING ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MAY BRIEFLY ALLOW FOR
A RAIN-SNOW MIX ON THE BACK END OF THE DEPARTING PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. A FEW MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN. HOWEVER, WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING, IMPACTS FROM ANY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN IOWA.
TOTALS DECREASE SOUTHWARD, WITH A ROUGHLY 75% PROBABILITY OF AT
LEAST ONE- HALF INCH ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. STRONG WAA ON
SUNDAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, HELPING
TO KICK START THE MELTING OF THE FRESH SNOW.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK,
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE, NUDGING
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BACK INTO THE 30S. THIS FEATURE MAY ALSO
INTRODUCE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WITH POPS AROUND 20%. LONG-
RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT DISPLACED FROM
THE FORECAST AREA, SUPPORTING THE LOWER POPS. WHILE LIGHT SNOW WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE IF THIS SYSTEM MATERIALIZES,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS AN
AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ADVANCES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND POTENTIALLY THE 50S.
THIS WARMER-THAN-NORMAL PATTERN APPEARS POISED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
FEBRUARY, AS BOTH THE CPC'S 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS CONTINUE
TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
THE SCATTERED FIELD OF CLOUDS AT FL025-035 FROM EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON ARE IN THE PROCESS OF THINNING OUT, WITH ANY REMAINING
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO DISAPPEAR AS NORTHERLY WINDS QUIET DOWN
OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING,
WINDS WILL SHIFT FIRST NORTHWESTERLY, THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH SPEEDS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING. BY MID DAY,
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH VFR CLOUDS EVENTUALLY
BECOMING MVFR AT THE END TO JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. WITH THE
LOWERED CEILINGS WILL COME SNOW CHANCES, THAT WILL GENERALLY
LAST FOR 2-3 HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION, WITH KOFK'S KICKING OFF
AT 00Z TOMORROW EVENING. SOME OF THE SNOW COULD REACH MODERATE
INTENSITY, MEANING THAT VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO IFR
TERRITORY AS SNOW IS FALLING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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