321
FXUS63 KOAX 310938
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
338 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD THIS MORNING WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 24 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- EXPECT SOME SLICK ROADS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH
SNOW MOVING THROUGH (50-75% CHANCE). MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
TOTALS OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH, BUT A FEW LOCALIZED 2 INCH TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA (10-20% CHANCE).
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 30S AND 40S. MANY LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE 50S ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN
OVER THE AREA, LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES. AS OF 3 AM, MOST LOCATIONS HAD DROPPED BELOW 0,
WITH A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHEAST NE SEEING WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 20
BELOW. AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY
THIS MORNING, WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN A BIT IN NORTHEAST NE,
ALLOWING WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO THE 20-25 BELOW RANGE. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 9 AM.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SNOW CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SLIDE ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW WILL
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STOUT
DRY LAYER THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE WE GET ANYTHING
IN OUR AREA. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD A LITTLE LATER START TIME
IN NORTHEAST NE, WITH CONSENSUS FAVORING AROUND 4 PM, GIVE OR
TAKE AN HOUR OR 2. ONCE THE SNOW BAND DOES FORM, IT SHOULD PUSH
EAST RATHER QUICKLY, WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATION AT
GIVEN LOCATION LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN ABOUT 3-4 HOURS.
REGARDING THOSE AMOUNTS, MOST SHOULD SEE AROUND 0.5-1", BUT SOME
LOCALIZED 2" TOTALS COULD OCCUR (10-20% CHANCE), ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHEAST NE WHERE GUIDANCE HINTS AT MAYBE A TOUCH MORE
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE SNOW AND A LITTLE BIT MORE CONVECTIVE
NATURE. AS THE BAND EXITS, MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE COULD SEE
A VERY BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE, SNOW, AND/OR SLEET WITH SIGNS OF LOSING IN-CLOUD
ICE AND A WARM NOSE PUSHING JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER,
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WE QUICKLY DESATURATE AS THAT OCCURS, SO NOT
EXPECTING THAT WINTRY MIX TO CAUSE MUCH, IF ANY, ADDITIONAL
IMPACT BEYOND THE ALREADY SNOW-COVERED ROADS. FINALLY, SHOULD
NOTE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 30 MPH AS
THE SNOW FALLS IN NORTHEAST NE, SO ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD
LEAD TO POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THOSE GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF
PRETTY QUICKLY AS SNOW COMES TO AN END.
MOST PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO OUR EAST BY AROUND 4 AM WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW HELPING US TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING
IN MOST LOCATIONS BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, SO THE SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD
START MELTING PRETTY QUICKLY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO
NUDGE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA TO START THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW (10-20%), THOUGH STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO BE WORKED
OUT REGARDING EXACT TIMING. IF WE DO GET ANYTHING, ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS STRONGLY FAVOR IT REMAINING UNDER 1".
ONCE THAT SYSTEM PASSES, RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE EASTWARD
WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW SLIDES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND
DRAGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AND ALSO THAT WESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S ON THURSDAY. WE'LL BE A TOUCH COLDER ON
FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PUSHES BY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER,
STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
A WIND SHIFT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST, AND IS
POISED TO SWITCH THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO
BE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY IN DIRECTION BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. BY THAT
POINT, WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT 5 KTS OR LESS, BUT THOSE SPEEDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON, ENDING
UP WITH GUSTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THAT WILL
REACH 20-25+ KTS. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS, SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO WAFT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST, ARRIVING AT KOFK, THEN
KOMA/KLNK, LASTING FOR 2-3 HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST, WITH VISIBILITIES DIPPING INTO
IFR TERRITORY AS SNOW FALLS.
SNOW TIMING FOR THE TAF TERMINALS SATURDAY EVENING:
KOFK 00Z TO 03Z
KOMA 02Z TO 04Z
KLNK 03Z TO 05Z
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-
012-016>018-030>032.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...PETERSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page