087
FXUS63 KOAX 311722
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1122 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD THIS MORNING WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 24 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- EXPECT SOME SLICK ROADS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH
SNOW MOVING THROUGH (50-75% CHANCE). MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
TOTALS OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH, BUT A FEW LOCALIZED 2 INCH TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA (10-20% CHANCE).
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 30S AND 40S. MANY LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE 50S ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED IN
OVER THE AREA, LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES. AS OF 3 AM, MOST LOCATIONS HAD DROPPED BELOW 0,
WITH A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHEAST NE SEEING WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 20
BELOW. AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD EARLY
THIS MORNING, WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN A BIT IN NORTHEAST NE,
ALLOWING WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO THE 20-25 BELOW RANGE. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 9 AM.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SNOW CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SLIDE ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND DRAG A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW WILL
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STOUT
DRY LAYER THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE WE GET ANYTHING
IN OUR AREA. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD A LITTLE LATER START TIME
IN NORTHEAST NE, WITH CONSENSUS FAVORING AROUND 4 PM, GIVE OR
TAKE AN HOUR OR 2. ONCE THE SNOW BAND DOES FORM, IT SHOULD PUSH
EAST RATHER QUICKLY, WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATION AT
GIVEN LOCATION LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN ABOUT 3-4 HOURS.
REGARDING THOSE AMOUNTS, MOST SHOULD SEE AROUND 0.5-1", BUT SOME
LOCALIZED 2" TOTALS COULD OCCUR (10-20% CHANCE), ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHEAST NE WHERE GUIDANCE HINTS AT MAYBE A TOUCH MORE
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE SNOW AND A LITTLE BIT MORE CONVECTIVE
NATURE. AS THE BAND EXITS, MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE COULD SEE
A VERY BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE, SNOW, AND/OR SLEET WITH SIGNS OF LOSING IN-CLOUD
ICE AND A WARM NOSE PUSHING JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER,
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW WE QUICKLY DESATURATE AS THAT OCCURS, SO NOT
EXPECTING THAT WINTRY MIX TO CAUSE MUCH, IF ANY, ADDITIONAL
IMPACT BEYOND THE ALREADY SNOW-COVERED ROADS. FINALLY, SHOULD
NOTE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS ON EITHER SIDE OF 30 MPH AS
THE SNOW FALLS IN NORTHEAST NE, SO ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD
LEAD TO POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THOSE GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF
PRETTY QUICKLY AS SNOW COMES TO AN END.
MOST PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO OUR EAST BY AROUND 4 AM WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW HELPING US TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING
IN MOST LOCATIONS BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, SO THE SNOW THAT DOES FALL SHOULD
START MELTING PRETTY QUICKLY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO
NUDGE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA TO START THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW (10-20%), THOUGH STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO BE WORKED
OUT REGARDING EXACT TIMING. IF WE DO GET ANYTHING, ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS STRONGLY FAVOR IT REMAINING UNDER 1".
ONCE THAT SYSTEM PASSES, RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE EASTWARD
WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW SLIDES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND
DRAGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AND ALSO THAT WESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S ON THURSDAY. WE'LL BE A TOUCH COLDER ON
FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PUSHES BY TO OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER,
STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL PARTS
OF SD AND NE WILL CONTINUE EAST, REACHING KOFK BY 22Z, AND KOMA
AND KLNK IN THE 01/02Z-01/03Z TIMEFRAME. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR IN THE SUBSEQUENT 2-3
HOURS AS THE BAND PASSES THROUGH THOSE LOCATIONS. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCES HINTS AT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE INITIAL SNOW BAND IN THE 01/04Z-01/08Z
TIME PERIOD. SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION COULD BE A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW, LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET. AREAL COVERAGE CURRENTLY
APPEARS LIMITED, SO CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRENCE AT THE
TERMINAL LOCATIONS IS CURRENTLY LOW.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT KOFK, AND THIS
EVENING AT KOMA AND KLNK. WINDS THEN DECREASE SUNDAY MORNING
WHILE SWITCHING TO WEST OR NORTHWEST.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...MEAD
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