188
FXUS63 KOAX 312335
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
535 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT SOME SLICK ROADS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A
BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA (60-90+% CHANCE). MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TOTALS OF A FEW TENTHS UP TO 1 INCH, BUT
A FEW LOCALIZED 2-INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA (10-20% CHANCE).
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 30S AND 40S. MANY LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE 50S ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NE AS OF NOON-- WILL TRACK
NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ON IT'S HEELS, A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST NE AND WESTERN IA TONIGHT. FORCING FOR ASCENT
TIED TO THE LEAD WAVE COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAVE
FOSTERED A RELATIVELY NARROW SNOW BAND EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
SD INTO CENTRAL NE AS OF MIDDAY.
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE PROGRESSES THE SNOW BAND INTO THE NORTHWEST
PART OF OUR AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. GIVEN A DRY, ANTECEDENT AIR MASS,
CONSIDERABLE TOP-DOWN SATURATION IS BEING REQUIRED FOR THE SNOW
TO REACH THE SURFACE, RESULTING IN AN EXPECTED 2-4 HOUR TIME
WINDOW FOR CONSISTENT SNOWFALL AT ANY ONE LOCATION. IN THE WAKE
OF THE PRIMARY SNOW BAND AND AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY DISTURBANCE,
THE MODELS HINT AT WIDELY SCATTERED, MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
GRADUAL LOSS OF SATURATION/ICE-INTRODUCTION ATOP A DEVELOPING
WARM NOSE, SUGGESTIVE OF A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND/OR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ALSO
DECREASES DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD, SO NO IMPACTFUL ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
IN REGARD TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, LIMITED EVENT DURATION WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS LOW WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS, HIGHLIGHTING TOTALS FROM A FEW TENTHS UP TO AN INCH.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NE.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND IN
THE LEAD SNOW BAND, SO TRAVEL COULD BE IMPACTED BY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN FALLING/BLOWING SNOW AND SLIPPERY ROADS. THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT OVERALL IMPACTS WILL REMAIN LOWER
THAN THAT REQUIRED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FORECAST. SO, ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS OVERNIGHT SHOULD MELT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
NEXT WEEK:
HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA WILL BE TEMPORARILY DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PROGRESSING ALONG ITS PERIPHERY. BUT IN GENERAL, THAT FEATURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST, LEADING TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A COUPLE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. IN
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, LEADING TO LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-30%). OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ARE FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND 50S ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
A BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD, BRINGING IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS TO KOFK CURRENTLY ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT 20-25 KTS. THIS BAND OF SNOW HAS DROPPED SNOW TO THE
WEST AT KBBW, CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT WE WILL SEE A 2-3 HOUR
WINDOW OF SNOW AS CONTINUES, WITH SNOW RATES AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED TO BE BETTER BY THE TIME IT REACHES KLNK AND KOMA.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR, COMPARED TO THE MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY ANY FLAKES. CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING IN SEEING ANYTHING BEYOND 05Z, WITH ANY REMAINING
CHANCES (20-30%) PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 09Z.
WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY, THEN NORTHWESTERLY, WITH STRONG WINDS
AT FL014 TO FL019 OF 35-40 KTS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONCERNS AT KOFK AND KLNK THROUGH 16Z. THEREAFTER, NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CARRY US THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20
KTS AT KOFK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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