271
FXUS63 KOAX 022328
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
528 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
(15-25% CHANCE). SNOW COULD MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
TIMES. SNOW AMOUNTS OF A TRACE UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION. MINOR TO NO TRAVEL
IMPACT EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
(15-30% CHANCE) TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. LITTLE TO NO TRAVEL IMPACT
EXPECTED.
- NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WARMING INTO
THE 50S THURSDAY, AND 40S AND 50S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD ALLOW RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP
AND MOVE, INCREASING THE RISK OF ICE JAMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS AS OF MIDDAY WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, IN TANDEM WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING WIDELY SCATTERED, LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (15-25% POPS) SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER ABOUT 8 PM. WE CONTINUE TO SEE A SIMILAR SIGNAL IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS, WHICH SHOW COLUMNAR SATURATION OSCILLATING IN AND OUT
OF THE THERMAL LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF ICE INTRODUCTION. SO, WHILE
EXPLICIT MODEL PRECIPITATION-TYPE FIELDS INDICATE PREDOMINATELY
LIGHT SNOW, THE FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO PERIODICALLY MIX IN. WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM A TRACE UP
TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH APPEAR POSSIBLE. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION
CURRENTLY APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW. GIVEN THESE
CONSIDERATIONS, ONLY MINOR --AND SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED-- TRAVEL
IMPACTS (I.E., SLIPPERY ROADS AND/OR BRIEF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS) ARE EXPECTED.
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY:
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO GLANCE THE REGION
THIS PERIOD WITH LATEST MODEL TRENDS SHIFTING THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED QPF TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. THIS FORECAST UPDATE
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE 15-30% POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF OUR AREA WITH SEEMINGLY THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN NORTHEAST NE. THE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP IS SIMILAR TO
THE ONE TONIGHT, WHERE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SATURATION FOR ICE
INTRODUCTION REMAINS IN QUESTION. SO, SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
COULD MIX WITH ANY LIGHT-SNOW OCCURRENCE. MINIMAL SNOW/ICE
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AMPLIFIED RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY MORNING TRANSITIONING TO A HIGH-OVER-LOW
CONFIGURATION WHILE EDGING TOWARD THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND.
THAT SOLUTION PLACES THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE
RIDGE PART OF THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
A WARMING TREND. THURSDAY CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. READINGS IN THE 40S AND
50S ARE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS WE HAVE BEEN ALLUDING TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THE ODDS OF ICE BREAK UP ON
AREA RIVERS, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO JAMS. SO, WE WILL BE
MONITORING THAT PROCESS CLOSELY THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
LOWER CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE WEST OF KOFK AND
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH THOSE MVFR TO AT TIMES IFR (NEAR KOFK)
CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. EXPECT INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
WINDS AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH THOSE RESTRICTIONS
ARRIVING TO KOFK AT 06Z, KOMA AT 08Z, AND KLNK A BIT LATER AT
11Z. ALONG WITH THOSE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO COME
LOW-END CHANCES AT SNOW (10-20%), STARTING AT 10Z AT KOFK,
BEFORE EXITING THE KOMA/KLNK TERMINALS CLOSER TO 18Z. AS OF NOW,
NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE TAF DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING FOR ANY ONE LOCATION, AND DUE TO MOST LOCATIONS STAYING
DRY FOR MOST OF THAT TIME PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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