846
FXUS63 KOAX 031134
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
534 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING
(15-25% CHANCE). SNOW AMOUNTS OF A TRACE UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH. MINOR TO NO TRAVEL IMPACT EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
(15-30% CHANCE) TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY NEAR
AND NORTH OF I-80. A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD SEE
SLICK ROADS WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW AND A GLAZE OF ICE
(10% CHANCE).
- NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WARMING INTO
THE 50S THURSDAY, AND 40S AND 50S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD ALLOW RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP
AND MOVE, INCREASING THE RISK OF ICE JAMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING THROUGH THE SD/IA/NE BORDER AREA WITH RADAR SHOWING SOME
ASSOCIATED LIGHT RETURNS. HOWEVER, NOT MANY LOCATIONS WERE
REPORTING PRECIP, OWING TO DRY NEAR SURFACE AIR, THOUGH A FEW
SPOTS WERE SEEING SOME FLURRIES. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE OFF AND
ON THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING, THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
WE'LL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DRY AIR, SO EXPECTING LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION AND ONLY PERHAPS SOME VERY LOCALIZED DUSTINGS
ON ROADWAYS. SHOULD ALSO MENTION GIVEN THE DRY AIR, WE MAY AT
TIMES LOSE IN-CLOUD ICE ALLOWING SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE TO MIX
IN, BUT AGAIN, ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
INCONSEQUENTIAL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ON
TRACK TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE INITIAL PUSH OF FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE MORE OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NE, LEAVING US DRY INITIALLY. HOWEVER, TRENDS ARE TOWARD THE
TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND BECOMING A LITTLE MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
ALLOWING A SECONDARY BIT OF ENERGY TO "FOLD OVER" INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, LATEST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED
BAND OF PRECIP MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON EXACT TIMING, COVERAGE, AND HOW FAR
SOUTH/EAST ANY ACCUMULATION WILL MAKE IT, BUT MOST CAMS HAVE
THIS SIGNAL. AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE, MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
IT'LL START AS SNOW, BUT WE QUICKLY LOSE SATURATION ALOFT,
ELIMINATING IN-CLOUD ICE. THIS COULD LEAD TO BRIEF TRANSITION
TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WE HAVE SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND A 1-2 KM DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION.
PRECIP SHOULD MOVE THROUGH RELATIVELY QUICKLY, SO AMOUNTS OF
BOTH SNOW AND ICE SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR MOST AREAS (0.1-0.2" OF
SNOW, GLAZE OF ICE). HOWEVER, CAMS DO SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWER POTENTIAL, SUGGESTING SOME LOCALIZED HALF INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND SLICK ROADS AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION (10%
CHANCE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NE). ANY PRECIP WE GET SHOULD
EXIT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.
FOR THURSDAY ONWARD, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL GRADUALLY EDGE EASTWARD LEADING TO WARMER WEATHER.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT
SEVEN WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HELPING US TO GET INTO THE
50S FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA, AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW READINGS
HITTING 60 AS YOU GO WEST OF LINCOLN AND NORFOLK. A COLD FRONT
IS STILL PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE AND WON'T
IMPACT TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S
AND 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LONG TERM
OUTLOOKS FAVORING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO
MID-FEBRUARY. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, WE'LL CONTINUE TO
WATCH FOR RIVER ICE BREAK UP/MOVEMENT AND AN INCREASING THREAT
OF ICE JAMS. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING MOST NIGHTS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD HELP KEEP IT SOMEWHAT GRADUAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
SOME SCATTERING OUT POSSIBLE AT OMA AND LNK AFTER 00Z, THOUGH
3500-4000 FT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN. THERE'S ALSO A
15-20% CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE MOVES
THROUGH OMA THIS MORNING, BUT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST ANY
RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE LIMITED. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD (09Z OR LATER
AT OFK), BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page